Bitcoin surged to unprecedented levels, crossing $99,000 overnight, marking a dramatic rally that has seen the cryptocurrency rise over 40% in just two weeks. Trading at $98,882 early Friday, according to CoinDesk, the digital asset is on the cusp of breaching the symbolic $100,000 threshold, a stark recovery from its $17,000 low after the collapse of FTX two years ago.
Drivers of the Rally
The rally comes as the cryptocurrency industry anticipates a more favorable regulatory environment under President-elect Donald Trump. A vocal supporter of cryptocurrency in recent months, Trump has pledged to make the United States the “crypto capital of the planet,” with plans for a bitcoin “strategic reserve.” His campaign’s acceptance of cryptocurrency donations and his appearance at a bitcoin conference have further boosted sentiment in the market.
Additionally, the approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) earlier this year has attracted significant institutional and retail investment. These ETFs recorded $6 billion in trade volume during election week, according to data from Kaiko, further propelling bitcoin’s rise.
Regulatory Shifts and Economic Context
Market players are hopeful for regulatory clarity as Gary Gensler, the SEC chair who led a crackdown on crypto companies under President Joe Biden, is set to step down on January 20. Many in the industry view Gensler’s departure as an opportunity for a policy shift from enforcement-focused measures to more comprehensive legislative frameworks.
However, the bullish sentiment comes amid lingering concerns about the long-term stability of the market. Citi macro strategist David Glass noted that while current momentum is promising, the impact of regulatory changes will take time to materialize.
Risks and Volatility
Cryptocurrency remains inherently volatile, with past performance showcasing dramatic price fluctuations. For instance, bitcoin fell from nearly $69,000 in November 2021 to below $17,000 by late 2022 during the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes and the fallout from FTX’s collapse.
Experts caution that while bitcoin’s rally has been extraordinary, risks of corrections persist. “There’s no magic eight ball,” said Adam Morgan McCarthy, a research analyst at Kaiko. He advised investors to remain cautious, especially those with smaller portfolios, emphasizing the importance of managing risk responsibly.
Environmental Concerns
Bitcoin mining’s environmental impact continues to draw scrutiny. A recent study by the United Nations University found that the carbon footprint of global bitcoin mining in 2020-2021 was equivalent to the emissions from burning 84 billion pounds of coal. Despite increased use of cleaner energy, critics argue that bitcoin’s reliance on pollutive sources like coal remains significant.
As bitcoin approaches the $100,000 milestone, the cryptocurrency market faces a mix of optimism and caution. Investors and industry players alike are watching closely to see whether the rally can sustain its momentum in the coming weeks.
