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The U.S. economy expanded solidly in the third quarter of 2024, growing at an annual rate of 2.8%, according to figures released by the Commerce Department. While this marks a slight slowdown from the previous quarter’s 3% growth, the data indicates that the U.S. remains on track for one of the strongest economic performances among major economies this year. The primary driver behind this growth was consumer spending, which has seen a rebound compared to earlier in the year.

This economic report comes just days before polls close in a closely contested presidential election, where surveys consistently indicate that the economy is the foremost concern for American voters. However, experts suggest that these latest figures may not significantly alleviate public worries.

Despite the positive economic indicators, sentiment remains low. A recent poll by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research revealed that 62% of Americans currently view the economy as “bad.” The pandemic has cast a long shadow over economic sentiment, with a substantial 21% increase in prices over the past four years dampening public perception, regardless of encouraging data.

In a political landscape where the phrase “it’s the economy, stupid,” coined by strategist James Carville in 1992, remains relevant, the economic concerns could pose challenges for Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democrats, the incumbent party. Former President Donald Trump is leveraging his record during his presidency, a time often viewed as more favorable economically, to appeal to voters.

Analysts, however, caution that the electorate’s perception of the economy has become increasingly partisan. Marjorie Connelly, a senior fellow at the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs, noted, “Even though the economy is based on numbers, a lot of people’s views are partisan.” The poll indicated a stark divide, with 61% of Democrats viewing the economy positively, compared to just 13% of Republicans and 28% of independents.

Despite economic concerns being high on voters’ lists, other issues may ultimately influence election outcomes more decisively. Connelly added, “I don’t know how much people are going to vote on the economy. There are other issues.”

The economy consistently ranks as a top voter concern, in part because it is one area where a significant number of both Democrats and Republicans find common ground. Recent hard data supports a positive outlook, with declining petrol prices, stabilizing grocery costs, and rising wages helping many families cope with increased living expenses.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in four years in September, expressing growing confidence that inflation is easing. Additionally, a strong rebound in job growth and an increase in the Conference Board’s consumer sentiment index in October further bolstered optimism.

Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, suggests that rising sentiment may be linked to increased confidence among Republicans regarding Trump’s electoral chances. However, Dana Peterson, chief economist for The Conference Board, emphasized the importance of tangible economic data, stating, “The data are the data… we’re not as worried.” As the election approaches, the interplay between economic data and political perceptions will be closely watched.

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Netflix Offices in Paris and Amsterdam Raided in Tax Fraud Investigation

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Paris, France – French and Dutch authorities conducted raids on Netflix offices in Paris and Amsterdam as part of a collaborative investigation into alleged tax fraud, according to French judicial sources. The investigation, which began in November 2022, focuses on potential tax evasion and unreported earnings by the global streaming giant.

Netflix, headquartered in Los Gatos, California, has yet to comment on the raids directly, but the company reiterated its commitment to adhering to tax laws in every region it operates. The office in Amsterdam, Netflix’s European headquarters, oversees operations across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

The investigation in France is being led by the National Financial Prosecutor’s Office (PNF), a specialized unit responsible for handling high-profile financial crimes. Officials from the PNF are reportedly scrutinizing Netflix for allegedly “covering up serious tax fraud and off-the-books work.” The inquiry includes examining Netflix’s tax filings for 2019, 2020, and 2021, years during which the company is suspected of minimizing reported profits to reduce its tax burden in France.

Authorities in the Netherlands conducted simultaneous searches at Netflix’s Amsterdam office, working closely with French investigators. Officials from both countries have been coordinating efforts for months, according to French judicial sources.

The investigation was initially prompted by concerns that Netflix may have shifted revenue from France to the Netherlands, allowing it to benefit from more favorable tax arrangements. French media outlet La Lettre reported last year that until 2021, Netflix declared its French-generated revenue in the Netherlands, effectively lowering its tax payments in France. After changing this practice, Netflix reported a sharp increase in revenue in France, jumping from €47.1 million ($51.3 million) in 2020 to €1.2 billion in 2021.

However, the authorities are now investigating whether Netflix continued efforts to limit reported profits after 2021. If confirmed, such actions could indicate an ongoing strategy to minimize tax obligations.

Netflix launched its streaming service in France over a decade ago, opening a dedicated Paris office in 2020. Since then, the company has garnered around 10 million subscribers in the country, according to AFP news agency, making it one of the largest streaming platforms in the region.

The outcome of the investigation could have significant implications, as European governments have been increasing pressure on tech giants to ensure fair tax practices. The European Union has previously taken steps to address tax loopholes and boost transparency, particularly concerning companies with multinational operations that generate significant revenue from European consumers.

This investigation marks one of the latest moves by European authorities to address concerns about tax evasion by large technology firms. Depending on the findings, Netflix may face financial penalties or be required to alter its financial reporting practices in the region. The developments also come amid a broader push by European governments to standardize corporate taxation and prevent revenue shifting across borders.

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How to Set Up a Business in Estonia: Guide to Company Formation Options

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Set Up a Business in Estonia

Estonia has become a top destination for entrepreneurs and digital nomads, thanks to its advanced digital infrastructure and business-friendly regulations. Setting up a business in Estonia is efficient and flexible, with options to suit various needs, from e-residency to traditional registration methods. This guide will walk you through the main pathways to register a company in Estonia, highlighting the steps, benefits, and considerations for each.

1. E-Residency Program: A Digital Pathway to Business

Estonia’s e-residency program is revolutionary, enabling foreign entrepreneurs to set up and manage a fully digital company within Estonia’s legal framework. After applying for e-residency and obtaining a digital ID, you gain access to Estonian government portals and digital business services. This pathway is popular among remote workers, freelancers, and startups, as it allows complete management of the business online without physical presence.

  • Pros: No physical presence required, full access to Estonia’s digital ecosystem, and easy integration with EU banking systems.
  • Cons: Limited to certain business models and requires understanding of online compliance.

2. Traditional On-Site Registration

For those who prefer or require a more traditional approach, on-site company registration in Estonia provides a straightforward process. This method is often chosen by entrepreneurs who plan to live in Estonia or have a local representative. The process involves filing the necessary documents with Estonia’s Commercial Register and can be completed in a few days if all paperwork is in order.

  • Pros: Suitable for businesses requiring a physical presence, can access additional support services within Estonia.
  • Cons: Requires in-person visits to Estonia or use of local representation.

3. Company Registration via Power of Attorney

For those who cannot be physically present in Estonia, company registration via a power of attorney is an efficient and secure solution. By granting a trusted representative or legal expert the authority to handle the registration process on your behalf, you can establish your business remotely. This method is particularly useful for international entrepreneurs who prefer expert assistance in navigating legal and administrative procedures.

  • Pros: Complete registration without traveling to Estonia, saves time and simplifies the process.
  • Cons: Requires choosing a reliable representative, and additional legal fees may apply.

Why Choose Eesti Firma for Company Registration?

Eesti Firma specializes in guiding clients through each step of the Estonian company registration process. Our expertise includes assistance with e-residency applications, on-site registrations, and registrations via power of attorney. With tailored support, local knowledge, and a focus on efficient service, we ensure that your path to establishing a business in Estonia is smooth and fully compliant. Let Eesti Firma help you set up an enterprise in Estonia and unlock the potential of the EU’s digital gateway.

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Economists Predict Potential Euro Weakening in Case of Trump Victory

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As the U.S. elections approach, economists largely agree that a victory for Donald Trump could weaken the euro against the dollar. The single currency has already fallen more than 2% in the month leading up to the vote, reflecting increasing concerns about a Trump win. Analysts warn that if Republicans achieve a “red sweep” by securing full control of Congress, the euro could potentially fall to parity or below against the dollar.

One of the primary mechanisms for this shift would be Trump’s proposed tariffs on foreign goods, including a potential 60% tariff on Chinese imports and a 10% tariff on products from other nations. Economists caution that such tariffs would likely drive inflation in the United States, as the cost of imported goods rises and companies pass these costs onto consumers. This inflation could prompt a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve, which may need to raise interest rates to combat price pressures linked to the tariffs.

In contrast, Europe could face a slowdown in economic growth due to the U.S. protectionist policies, potentially prompting the European Central Bank (ECB) to adopt a looser monetary policy to support its economy. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates while the ECB eases, the interest rate differential could lead to a stronger dollar, further pressuring the euro.

In addition to tariffs, a Trump administration may also implement stricter immigration policies. This reduction in available labor could push wages higher as companies compete for workers, contributing to inflation and reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s need for tighter monetary policy. Such developments would likely bolster the dollar and disadvantage the euro.

Luca Santos, a foreign exchange analyst at ACY Securities, noted that a Trump victory could result in policy changes aimed at boosting U.S. economic growth, leading to a stronger dollar as investors anticipate a favorable climate for U.S. assets. Similarly, Georgette Boele, Senior FX & Precious Metals Strategist at ABN Amro, highlighted the impact of Trump’s trade policies on the dollar, pointing out that recent polling changes have heightened volatility in the dollar ahead of the election.

Strategists at BBVA predict that if Trump wins, especially with a full Republican Congress, the euro could drop below $1.08. Conversely, they foresee a weaker dollar should Vice President Kamala Harris win the election. Goldman Sachs offered one of the most pessimistic forecasts for the euro, suggesting it could weaken by up to 10% under Trump’s policies, potentially bringing it below parity with the dollar.

Historically, the initial months of Trump’s presidency saw the dollar strengthen, with the euro declining from $1.10 to $1.0340 by early 2017. However, as Trump’s economic agenda faced delays and eurozone growth improved, the euro later appreciated against the dollar.

While a drop to euro-dollar parity is not certain, renewed U.S. protectionism, rising inflation, and diverging central bank policies could all significantly influence the euro’s trajectory in the coming months, particularly if tariffs adversely affect European exports. Investors are closely monitoring these developments as the election draws near.

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North Korean soldiers have clashed with Ukrainian troops for the first time, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing war in Ukraine. Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed the incident in an interview with South Korean broadcaster KBS, stating that a “small group” of North Korean soldiers had been involved in a confrontation with Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the lack of response from the West, calling the clash the beginning of a “new chapter of instability” in the world. He warned that these first battles with North Korea could have far-reaching consequences for global security. However, South Korea’s government has played down the severity of the incident, with Seoul officials stating they do not believe that direct combat took place. Instead, they described the event as an “incident” involving a small number of North Korean troops near the frontline. Despite this, tensions are rising, as Ukraine claims that up to 11,000 North Korean soldiers are stationed in the Kursk border region, where Ukrainian forces have a presence. Reports from South Korean, U.S., and NATO intelligence agencies over the past few weeks have pointed to the involvement of North Korean troops in Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. While Moscow and Pyongyang have not directly addressed these allegations, the situation has raised concerns internationally. The first reports of North Korean military involvement came from Andriy Kovalenko, Ukraine’s top counter-disinformation official, who posted on Telegram that North Korean units had come under fire in the Kursk region. Umerov confirmed these reports, stating that while the encounters so far have been minor, a “significant number” of North Korean troops are expected to be deployed in combat in the future. He noted that many of the troops are still undergoing training in Russia and are being integrated into Russian military units. According to Umerov, the North Korean soldiers, who are reportedly wearing Russian uniforms, are being trained in tactics and deployed under Russian command on the front lines. He mentioned that about five units, each consisting of roughly 3,000 soldiers, are expected to be involved in operations. Although no casualties have been reported, the involvement of North Korean troops is raising alarm both in Ukraine and internationally. In a daily video address, Zelensky called on Ukraine and its allies to ensure that this “Russian step toward expanding the war” would fail for both Russia and North Korea. The situation has also sparked diplomatic tensions, with South Korea having summoned Russia’s ambassador last month to demand the withdrawal of North Korean troops. In addition, Seoul has warned that it may consider directly supplying arms to Ukraine in response to this growing involvement. Analysts suggest that Pyongyang could be compensated for its support with Russian military technology or other incentives. On Wednesday, Russian lawmakers are set to vote on a mutual defense treaty with North Korea, further solidifying the alliance between the two countries.

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