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The eurozone economy showed unexpected resilience in the third quarter of 2024, expanding by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, as revealed in Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimates. This growth, doubling the forecasted 0.2%, marks the eurozone’s strongest expansion since the third quarter of 2022 and reflects improved performance in key economies, including Germany and France. In contrast, the European Union’s economy grew at a stable 0.3% rate, matching the previous quarter.

Year-on-year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.9% in both the eurozone and the EU, underscoring steady recovery across the region despite broader economic uncertainties.

Germany and France Outperform Expectations

Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, saw a 0.2% GDP increase, defying predictions of a slight contraction. Data from Germany’s Federal Statistical Office highlighted that this growth followed a revised 0.3% contraction in the second quarter. The country’s recovery was primarily driven by increased government and household consumption, though challenges remain. Economists still project that Germany will end 2024 with a 0.2% GDP decline, its first consecutive annual recession since the early 2000s following a 0.3% downturn in 2023.

France, meanwhile, posted a robust 0.4% GDP increase, building on its 0.2% growth in the second quarter. The surge was fueled by household consumption and government spending, partly attributed to post-Olympics economic activity in Paris. According to INSEE, the national statistics agency, household consumption rose by 0.5% due to increased spending on goods, energy, and information services. While trade contributed modestly to growth with both exports and imports declining, fixed investment saw a downturn, mainly in manufactured goods and services.

Diverse Economic Outcomes Across Eurozone Members

In a diverse performance across the bloc, Ireland led with a notable 2.0% quarterly GDP rise, followed by Lithuania and Spain, which saw increases of 1.1% and 0.8%, respectively. However, some eurozone members faced setbacks: Hungary, Latvia, and Sweden recorded economic contractions. Italy, the third-largest eurozone economy, stalled with no growth, missing the forecasted 0.2% expansion after a modest 0.2% gain in Q2.

Market Reactions and Economic Indicators

Financial markets reacted to the positive economic news with the euro rising 0.3% to 1.0840 against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday. European sovereign bond yields remained steady, with Germany’s benchmark Bund yield holding at 2.3%.

Despite the strong GDP data, European stocks faced losses amid broader concerns from Asian markets and upcoming economic events in the U.S. Italy’s FTSE Mib was the hardest hit among major indices, declining 1.3% as stocks in Campari and Stellantis saw significant drops. France’s CAC 40 index slipped 0.9%, driven by downturns in luxury stocks such as Kering and LVMH, which fell 3.8% and 2.5%, respectively. The Euro Stoxx 50 index dropped 0.9%, impacted by declines in luxury brands, Dutch tech firm ASML Holding, and major European banks.

Investor attention now turns to key economic reports anticipated later this week. Germany’s October inflation report, set for release later today, and eurozone-wide inflation data due tomorrow are expected to influence market expectations ahead of the European Central Bank’s next policy meeting. These figures could shape the ECB’s stance on future interest rate decisions as it navigates the path between stimulating growth and controlling inflation.

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Netflix Offices in Paris and Amsterdam Raided in Tax Fraud Investigation

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Paris, France – French and Dutch authorities conducted raids on Netflix offices in Paris and Amsterdam as part of a collaborative investigation into alleged tax fraud, according to French judicial sources. The investigation, which began in November 2022, focuses on potential tax evasion and unreported earnings by the global streaming giant.

Netflix, headquartered in Los Gatos, California, has yet to comment on the raids directly, but the company reiterated its commitment to adhering to tax laws in every region it operates. The office in Amsterdam, Netflix’s European headquarters, oversees operations across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

The investigation in France is being led by the National Financial Prosecutor’s Office (PNF), a specialized unit responsible for handling high-profile financial crimes. Officials from the PNF are reportedly scrutinizing Netflix for allegedly “covering up serious tax fraud and off-the-books work.” The inquiry includes examining Netflix’s tax filings for 2019, 2020, and 2021, years during which the company is suspected of minimizing reported profits to reduce its tax burden in France.

Authorities in the Netherlands conducted simultaneous searches at Netflix’s Amsterdam office, working closely with French investigators. Officials from both countries have been coordinating efforts for months, according to French judicial sources.

The investigation was initially prompted by concerns that Netflix may have shifted revenue from France to the Netherlands, allowing it to benefit from more favorable tax arrangements. French media outlet La Lettre reported last year that until 2021, Netflix declared its French-generated revenue in the Netherlands, effectively lowering its tax payments in France. After changing this practice, Netflix reported a sharp increase in revenue in France, jumping from €47.1 million ($51.3 million) in 2020 to €1.2 billion in 2021.

However, the authorities are now investigating whether Netflix continued efforts to limit reported profits after 2021. If confirmed, such actions could indicate an ongoing strategy to minimize tax obligations.

Netflix launched its streaming service in France over a decade ago, opening a dedicated Paris office in 2020. Since then, the company has garnered around 10 million subscribers in the country, according to AFP news agency, making it one of the largest streaming platforms in the region.

The outcome of the investigation could have significant implications, as European governments have been increasing pressure on tech giants to ensure fair tax practices. The European Union has previously taken steps to address tax loopholes and boost transparency, particularly concerning companies with multinational operations that generate significant revenue from European consumers.

This investigation marks one of the latest moves by European authorities to address concerns about tax evasion by large technology firms. Depending on the findings, Netflix may face financial penalties or be required to alter its financial reporting practices in the region. The developments also come amid a broader push by European governments to standardize corporate taxation and prevent revenue shifting across borders.

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How to Set Up a Business in Estonia: Guide to Company Formation Options

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Set Up a Business in Estonia

Estonia has become a top destination for entrepreneurs and digital nomads, thanks to its advanced digital infrastructure and business-friendly regulations. Setting up a business in Estonia is efficient and flexible, with options to suit various needs, from e-residency to traditional registration methods. This guide will walk you through the main pathways to register a company in Estonia, highlighting the steps, benefits, and considerations for each.

1. E-Residency Program: A Digital Pathway to Business

Estonia’s e-residency program is revolutionary, enabling foreign entrepreneurs to set up and manage a fully digital company within Estonia’s legal framework. After applying for e-residency and obtaining a digital ID, you gain access to Estonian government portals and digital business services. This pathway is popular among remote workers, freelancers, and startups, as it allows complete management of the business online without physical presence.

  • Pros: No physical presence required, full access to Estonia’s digital ecosystem, and easy integration with EU banking systems.
  • Cons: Limited to certain business models and requires understanding of online compliance.

2. Traditional On-Site Registration

For those who prefer or require a more traditional approach, on-site company registration in Estonia provides a straightforward process. This method is often chosen by entrepreneurs who plan to live in Estonia or have a local representative. The process involves filing the necessary documents with Estonia’s Commercial Register and can be completed in a few days if all paperwork is in order.

  • Pros: Suitable for businesses requiring a physical presence, can access additional support services within Estonia.
  • Cons: Requires in-person visits to Estonia or use of local representation.

3. Company Registration via Power of Attorney

For those who cannot be physically present in Estonia, company registration via a power of attorney is an efficient and secure solution. By granting a trusted representative or legal expert the authority to handle the registration process on your behalf, you can establish your business remotely. This method is particularly useful for international entrepreneurs who prefer expert assistance in navigating legal and administrative procedures.

  • Pros: Complete registration without traveling to Estonia, saves time and simplifies the process.
  • Cons: Requires choosing a reliable representative, and additional legal fees may apply.

Why Choose Eesti Firma for Company Registration?

Eesti Firma specializes in guiding clients through each step of the Estonian company registration process. Our expertise includes assistance with e-residency applications, on-site registrations, and registrations via power of attorney. With tailored support, local knowledge, and a focus on efficient service, we ensure that your path to establishing a business in Estonia is smooth and fully compliant. Let Eesti Firma help you set up an enterprise in Estonia and unlock the potential of the EU’s digital gateway.

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Economists Predict Potential Euro Weakening in Case of Trump Victory

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As the U.S. elections approach, economists largely agree that a victory for Donald Trump could weaken the euro against the dollar. The single currency has already fallen more than 2% in the month leading up to the vote, reflecting increasing concerns about a Trump win. Analysts warn that if Republicans achieve a “red sweep” by securing full control of Congress, the euro could potentially fall to parity or below against the dollar.

One of the primary mechanisms for this shift would be Trump’s proposed tariffs on foreign goods, including a potential 60% tariff on Chinese imports and a 10% tariff on products from other nations. Economists caution that such tariffs would likely drive inflation in the United States, as the cost of imported goods rises and companies pass these costs onto consumers. This inflation could prompt a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve, which may need to raise interest rates to combat price pressures linked to the tariffs.

In contrast, Europe could face a slowdown in economic growth due to the U.S. protectionist policies, potentially prompting the European Central Bank (ECB) to adopt a looser monetary policy to support its economy. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates while the ECB eases, the interest rate differential could lead to a stronger dollar, further pressuring the euro.

In addition to tariffs, a Trump administration may also implement stricter immigration policies. This reduction in available labor could push wages higher as companies compete for workers, contributing to inflation and reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s need for tighter monetary policy. Such developments would likely bolster the dollar and disadvantage the euro.

Luca Santos, a foreign exchange analyst at ACY Securities, noted that a Trump victory could result in policy changes aimed at boosting U.S. economic growth, leading to a stronger dollar as investors anticipate a favorable climate for U.S. assets. Similarly, Georgette Boele, Senior FX & Precious Metals Strategist at ABN Amro, highlighted the impact of Trump’s trade policies on the dollar, pointing out that recent polling changes have heightened volatility in the dollar ahead of the election.

Strategists at BBVA predict that if Trump wins, especially with a full Republican Congress, the euro could drop below $1.08. Conversely, they foresee a weaker dollar should Vice President Kamala Harris win the election. Goldman Sachs offered one of the most pessimistic forecasts for the euro, suggesting it could weaken by up to 10% under Trump’s policies, potentially bringing it below parity with the dollar.

Historically, the initial months of Trump’s presidency saw the dollar strengthen, with the euro declining from $1.10 to $1.0340 by early 2017. However, as Trump’s economic agenda faced delays and eurozone growth improved, the euro later appreciated against the dollar.

While a drop to euro-dollar parity is not certain, renewed U.S. protectionism, rising inflation, and diverging central bank policies could all significantly influence the euro’s trajectory in the coming months, particularly if tariffs adversely affect European exports. Investors are closely monitoring these developments as the election draws near.

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News11 hours ago

North Korean soldiers have clashed with Ukrainian troops for the first time, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing war in Ukraine. Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed the incident in an interview with South Korean broadcaster KBS, stating that a “small group” of North Korean soldiers had been involved in a confrontation with Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the lack of response from the West, calling the clash the beginning of a “new chapter of instability” in the world. He warned that these first battles with North Korea could have far-reaching consequences for global security. However, South Korea’s government has played down the severity of the incident, with Seoul officials stating they do not believe that direct combat took place. Instead, they described the event as an “incident” involving a small number of North Korean troops near the frontline. Despite this, tensions are rising, as Ukraine claims that up to 11,000 North Korean soldiers are stationed in the Kursk border region, where Ukrainian forces have a presence. Reports from South Korean, U.S., and NATO intelligence agencies over the past few weeks have pointed to the involvement of North Korean troops in Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. While Moscow and Pyongyang have not directly addressed these allegations, the situation has raised concerns internationally. The first reports of North Korean military involvement came from Andriy Kovalenko, Ukraine’s top counter-disinformation official, who posted on Telegram that North Korean units had come under fire in the Kursk region. Umerov confirmed these reports, stating that while the encounters so far have been minor, a “significant number” of North Korean troops are expected to be deployed in combat in the future. He noted that many of the troops are still undergoing training in Russia and are being integrated into Russian military units. According to Umerov, the North Korean soldiers, who are reportedly wearing Russian uniforms, are being trained in tactics and deployed under Russian command on the front lines. He mentioned that about five units, each consisting of roughly 3,000 soldiers, are expected to be involved in operations. Although no casualties have been reported, the involvement of North Korean troops is raising alarm both in Ukraine and internationally. In a daily video address, Zelensky called on Ukraine and its allies to ensure that this “Russian step toward expanding the war” would fail for both Russia and North Korea. The situation has also sparked diplomatic tensions, with South Korea having summoned Russia’s ambassador last month to demand the withdrawal of North Korean troops. In addition, Seoul has warned that it may consider directly supplying arms to Ukraine in response to this growing involvement. Analysts suggest that Pyongyang could be compensated for its support with Russian military technology or other incentives. On Wednesday, Russian lawmakers are set to vote on a mutual defense treaty with North Korea, further solidifying the alliance between the two countries.

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