The global cancer burden is set to soar in the coming decades, with deaths projected to increase by nearly 75 percent by 2050 despite major medical advances, according to a new analysis published in The Lancet.
The study forecasts that 18.6 million people worldwide will die of cancer in 2050, compared to 10.4 million in 2023. New cancer cases are expected to rise by more than 60 percent in the same period, reaching 30.5 million. Researchers attributed the surge largely to population growth and ageing, which will expand the pool of people most vulnerable to the disease.
Cancer remains closely tied to lifestyle and environmental risks. More than 40 percent of cancer deaths in 2023 were linked to 44 “modifiable” risk factors such as smoking, poor diet, obesity, high blood sugar, and alcohol consumption. Among men, modifiable risks accounted for 46 percent of deaths, led by tobacco use, dietary choices, alcohol, workplace hazards, and air pollution. For women, 36 percent of cancer deaths were tied to modifiable factors, including tobacco, unsafe sex, diet, and high blood sugar.
“There are tremendous opportunities for countries to target these risk factors, potentially preventing cases of cancer and saving lives,” said Dr. Theo Vos, a researcher at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and one of the study’s authors.
The analysis tracked data from 1990 to 2023, covering 47 types of cancer across 204 countries and territories, before projecting trends through 2050. While overall cancer incidence and deaths have climbed sharply since 1990, death rates have declined in many high-income countries due to earlier detection, improved treatments, and prevention strategies such as anti-smoking campaigns.
However, lower-income countries are expected to bear the brunt of the future cancer epidemic. The report warns that they will account for more than half of new cancer cases and two-thirds of cancer deaths by 2050. Limited access to timely diagnosis, effective treatment, and supportive care could turn the situation into what researchers described as an “impending disaster.”
“Cancer is already stretching healthcare systems in lower-income countries, and this rising burden will worsen existing inequalities,” said Meghnath Dhimal of the Nepal Health Research Council, a co-author of the study. He emphasized the need for cost-effective interventions that can be implemented even in resource-constrained settings.
The authors urged governments to prioritize preventive health measures, strengthen screening and diagnostic capacity, and expand access to affordable cancer care. They stressed that curbing risk factors could substantially reduce future cases and deaths, especially in countries where healthcare systems are least prepared for the challenge.
As cancer cases and deaths climb over the next 25 years, the report concludes, addressing modifiable risks and investing in healthcare infrastructure will be critical to averting millions of preventable deaths.
