Economists Predict Potential Euro Weakening in Case of Trump Victory
As the U.S. elections approach, economists largely agree that a victory for Donald Trump could weaken the euro against the dollar. The single currency has already fallen more than 2% in the month leading up to the vote, reflecting increasing concerns about a Trump win. Analysts warn that if Republicans achieve a “red sweep” by securing full control of Congress, the euro could potentially fall to parity or below against the dollar.
One of the primary mechanisms for this shift would be Trump’s proposed tariffs on foreign goods, including a potential 60% tariff on Chinese imports and a 10% tariff on products from other nations. Economists caution that such tariffs would likely drive inflation in the United States, as the cost of imported goods rises and companies pass these costs onto consumers. This inflation could prompt a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve, which may need to raise interest rates to combat price pressures linked to the tariffs.
In contrast, Europe could face a slowdown in economic growth due to the U.S. protectionist policies, potentially prompting the European Central Bank (ECB) to adopt a looser monetary policy to support its economy. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates while the ECB eases, the interest rate differential could lead to a stronger dollar, further pressuring the euro.
In addition to tariffs, a Trump administration may also implement stricter immigration policies. This reduction in available labor could push wages higher as companies compete for workers, contributing to inflation and reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s need for tighter monetary policy. Such developments would likely bolster the dollar and disadvantage the euro.
Luca Santos, a foreign exchange analyst at ACY Securities, noted that a Trump victory could result in policy changes aimed at boosting U.S. economic growth, leading to a stronger dollar as investors anticipate a favorable climate for U.S. assets. Similarly, Georgette Boele, Senior FX & Precious Metals Strategist at ABN Amro, highlighted the impact of Trump’s trade policies on the dollar, pointing out that recent polling changes have heightened volatility in the dollar ahead of the election.
Strategists at BBVA predict that if Trump wins, especially with a full Republican Congress, the euro could drop below $1.08. Conversely, they foresee a weaker dollar should Vice President Kamala Harris win the election. Goldman Sachs offered one of the most pessimistic forecasts for the euro, suggesting it could weaken by up to 10% under Trump’s policies, potentially bringing it below parity with the dollar.
Historically, the initial months of Trump’s presidency saw the dollar strengthen, with the euro declining from $1.10 to $1.0340 by early 2017. However, as Trump’s economic agenda faced delays and eurozone growth improved, the euro later appreciated against the dollar.
While a drop to euro-dollar parity is not certain, renewed U.S. protectionism, rising inflation, and diverging central bank policies could all significantly influence the euro’s trajectory in the coming months, particularly if tariffs adversely affect European exports. Investors are closely monitoring these developments as the election draws near.
Business
EU New Car Registrations Rise in October, But Electric Vehicle Sales Struggle
New car registrations across the European Union rose slightly in October, driven by strong performances in Germany and Spain, according to the latest data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA). The EU saw a 1.1% increase in new car registrations for the month, with notable growth in two major markets.
Germany’s car registrations rebounded by 6%, reversing three months of declines, while Spain experienced a robust 7.2% increase. However, not all countries saw growth. Italy’s new car registrations fell by 9.1%, and France also experienced a decline, with a 11.1% drop in registrations.
Looking at the year so far, new car registrations in the EU have risen by 0.7% from January to October, reaching approximately 8.9 million units. Italy saw a modest increase of 0.9%, while Spain posted a 4.9% rise. However, both Germany and France have faced declines in new car registrations, with Germany down by 0.4% and France experiencing a 2.7% drop over the same period.
Sigrid de Vries, ACEA’s director general, commented on the trend, highlighting the challenges faced by the electric vehicle (EV) market. “The latest year-to-date figures on market volume for battery electric (-4.9%) and plug-in hybrid cars (-7.9%) underline the urgent need to increase efforts to support the transition to zero-emissions vehicles,” de Vries said. She stressed the need for greater incentives and an expanded network of charging stations to encourage consumer adoption.
Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) have seen a decline in sales, with a 4.9% drop in registrations in the first 10 months of 2024 compared to the same period last year. This decrease was primarily driven by a significant 26.6% drop in registrations in Germany. However, BEV registrations in October saw a slight uptick, increasing by 2.4% to 124,907 units.
Similarly, plug-in hybrid vehicle registrations also faced challenges. These vehicles dropped by 7.9% year-to-date, with disappointing performances in Italy and France. In October, plug-in hybrid car registrations fell 7.2%, reducing their market share to 7.7%, down from 8.4% in October 2023.
The slump in EV sales can be attributed to a combination of factors, including rising energy prices, insufficient incentives, and a lack of charging infrastructure. Additionally, higher tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, following concerns over government subsidies, have made these cars significantly more expensive in Europe. This price increase, along with ongoing economic uncertainty and rising interest rates, has led to a dampened consumer appetite for electric vehicles.
With global economic pressures and geopolitical uncertainty also weighing on consumer sentiment, the EU faces significant hurdles in meeting its ambitious targets for the transition to zero-emissions vehicles.
Business
Google Faces Potential Breakup After Monopoly Ruling: What’s Next for the Tech Giant?
The tech world is closely watching as Google navigates the aftermath of a significant legal ruling. In August, a U.S. judge determined that the company had illegally monopolized online search, sparking concerns over its dominance. Now, with the U.S. government pushing for more drastic measures, the future of Google’s business is uncertain.
The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has requested that U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta consider forcing Google to break up its business to reduce its stranglehold on the search engine market. One of the more extreme proposals is to have Google sell its Chrome browser, which serves as the primary gateway to its search engine. Chrome is the world’s most popular web browser, and forcing its sale could significantly alter the way users interact with Google’s services.
The DOJ also suggested that Google divest its Android operating system, which powers the majority of smartphones worldwide, as a means of preventing the company from promoting its search engine over competitors’. While these measures would be drastic, the government has also proposed “behavioral remedies,” such as restrictions on how Google can pay other companies, like Apple, to have its search engine set as the default on devices.
For instance, Google pays Apple billions annually to make its search engine the default on Apple devices like iPhones and Macs. If these payments were curtailed, it could potentially open the door for competitors like Microsoft’s Bing to gain ground. However, the transition would not be simple, as Google’s search engine is deeply ingrained in daily internet use, and many users are unlikely to switch easily.
Industry analysts suggest that any disruption to these lucrative partnerships could have significant ripple effects, especially for companies like Apple, which earned an estimated $20 billion from Google in 2022. Dipanjan Chatterjee from Forrester Research noted that Apple, known for its commitment to customer experience, will likely develop a “Plan B” if the case leads to changes in how search engines are selected.
Another potential remedy being discussed is the implementation of a “choice screen,” similar to what has been mandated in Europe. Under this system, users would be prompted to select their preferred search engine when setting up a new device or browser. While this could level the playing field, experts doubt it would cause many users to abandon Google, given the company’s dominance and reputation for reliable search results.
The legal battle is expected to continue for years, drawing comparisons to Microsoft’s lengthy antitrust case in the late 1990s and early 2000s. In that case, the company faced a similar ruling but ultimately reached a settlement after a drawn-out appeal process. With Google now in the hot seat, it remains to be seen what long-term impact this case will have on its operations and the broader tech industry.
Business
Comcast Announces Plan to Spin Off NBCUniversal Cable Networks Amid Streaming Growth
Comcast has announced plans to spin off its NBCUniversal cable television arm as part of a strategy to adapt to the challenges posed by streaming services like Netflix and Amazon Prime. The move, which was confirmed on Wednesday, aims to create a new company encompassing cable networks such as MSNBC, CNBC, USA, E!, Syfy, and the Golf Channel.
While the networks remain profitable, generating a combined revenue of $7 billion (£5.5 billion) in the year ending in September, the shift reflects the changing landscape of the media industry. Comcast will retain control of the NBC broadcast network, its film and television studios, its theme parks, and its Peacock streaming service. The company anticipates completing the spin-off within a year.
Executives believe that by separating the cable networks, Comcast will be in a better position for growth, particularly as traditional cable TV continues to see a decline in viewership. They also indicated that the newly formed company will be well-positioned to acquire additional cable networks that may become available in the future.
The new company will be led by Mark Lazarus, the chairman of NBCUniversal’s media group, who will serve as its CEO. Lazarus expressed optimism about the future, stating, “We see a real opportunity to invest and build additional scale, and I’m excited about the growth opportunities this transition will unlock.”
Comcast’s president, Michael Cavanagh, hinted at the potential move during a call with investors last month, suggesting the creation of a new, well-capitalized company that would manage its portfolio of cable networks.
Comcast acquired NBCUniversal in 2011, before the rise of streaming giants disrupted the cable TV market. At the time, its cable networks were seen as highly valuable assets. However, the decline of traditional cable subscriptions and the shift toward streaming platforms have led to reduced audience numbers for Comcast’s cable networks, which currently reach approximately 70 million U.S. households.
The decision follows similar moves by other media giants. Earlier this year, Warner Bros. and Paramount Global cut billions of dollars from the valuation of their cable TV networks. Comcast is the first major media company to officially announce the separation of its cable business, although Walt Disney had previously considered a similar strategy before abandoning the plan.
Following the announcement, shares in Comcast were set to open about 2% higher in New York trading.
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