China’s exports returned to growth in November, reversing a slight contraction in October, even as shipments to the United States continued to fall. According to customs data released Monday, overall exports rose 5.9 percent year-on-year to reach $330.3 billion (€283.21 billion), surpassing economists’ expectations. The improvement followed a 1.1 percent drop in October, highlighting resilience in China’s trade despite ongoing challenges.
Shipments to the United States, however, declined sharply, dropping nearly 29 percent compared with last year. This marks the eighth consecutive month of double-digit declines to the US, reflecting lingering effects of trade tensions. In contrast, exports to other destinations—including Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the European Union—showed significant growth, offsetting some of the losses from the US market.
The customs data also revealed a widening gap between exports and imports. China’s trade surplus for the first 11 months of the year topped $1 trillion (€925.99 billion), reaching a record high for any single year. Imports rose 1.9 percent in November to more than $218.6 billion (€187.38 billion), improving on October’s 1 percent increase, despite persistent weakness in the property sector, which continues to weigh on consumer spending and business investment.
The rebound in November comes after a year-long trade truce between China and the US reached in late October during a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. The agreement included tariff reductions by the US and a halt by China on certain export controls, including rare earths. Analysts caution, however, that November’s export figures may not yet fully reflect the effects of the tariff cuts. “It’s likely that November exports have yet to fully reflect the tariff cut, which should feed through in the coming months,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank.
While exports are holding steady, China’s manufacturing sector continues to face headwinds. Factory activity contracted for an eighth consecutive month in November, underscoring uncertainty over domestic demand. Economists said it remains too early to determine whether global demand will see a sustained rebound, despite the US-China trade truce.
Looking ahead, Chinese leaders are emphasizing advanced manufacturing and high-growth sectors, such as electric vehicles, robotics, and batteries, to drive future growth. An annual economic planning meeting held Monday, led by Xi Jinping, focused on strategies to ensure economic stability while pursuing progress into 2026.
Global analysts predict that China will continue gaining market share in international exports. Morgan Stanley forecasts that by 2030, China’s share of global exports could reach 16.5 percent, up from around 15 percent today, benefiting from its technological edge and strong manufacturing base. Chi Lo, global market strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, noted that while the US-China trade relationship remains in a stalemate, China’s growing export footprint suggests it will remain a dominant player in global trade.
