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China has introduced a series of new measures aimed at reviving its struggling economy as it faces the prospect of a second term for former U.S. President Donald Trump. The country is set to tackle massive local government debt in an effort to prevent it from further hindering economic growth.

Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election has raised concerns in Beijing, particularly over his pledge to implement steep tariffs on Chinese-made goods, with some estimates suggesting tariffs could reach as high as 60%. This potential trade conflict is expected to undermine Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambitious plan to transform the country into a global technology leader, further straining relations between the world’s two largest economies.

China’s economic recovery has faced significant challenges since the pandemic, with a property slump, rising government debt, and increasing unemployment slowing growth. Low consumer demand has compounded these problems, leading to a sharp decline in economic activity. Against this backdrop, the latest economic measures, announced by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC), are seen as crucial to stabilizing the economy.

Trump’s trade policies during his first term were already painful for China, with tariffs on Chinese goods reaching as high as 25%. Experts like China analyst Bill Bishop suggest that Trump’s return to the White House would likely result in an escalation of tariffs, particularly if he believes that China has not fulfilled its trade commitments. “I think we should believe that he means it when he talks about tariffs,” said Bishop. “He sees China as having reneged on his trade deal and thinks China and Covid cost him the 2020 election.”

While the U.S.-China trade tensions didn’t subside after Trump left office in 2021, with the Biden administration maintaining and even expanding some tariffs, China is now in a more vulnerable position. The economy has struggled to return to pre-pandemic growth levels, especially after abandoning strict Covid restrictions two years ago. Instead of a quick recovery, the country has experienced ongoing economic disappointments.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its growth forecast for China, now expecting a modest 4.8% expansion in 2024, below Beijing’s target of “about 5%”. The IMF’s projection for 2025 suggests even slower growth, with an anticipated rate of just 4.5%.

In response, China’s latest plan includes an injection of 6 trillion yuan ($840 billion) between now and 2026 to help local governments manage their growing debt burdens. For years, local governments have relied on borrowing to finance infrastructure projects, but a downturn in the property sector has left many cities unable to meet their financial obligations. The new measures aim to alleviate this crisis and support economic stability as the country navigates increasingly turbulent global economic conditions.

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Russian Gas Flow to EU Ends as Deal Expires, Straining Moldova and Eastern Europe

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Russia’s decision to stop gas exports to European Union (EU) states via Ukraine marks the end of a decades-long energy arrangement, leaving significant geopolitical and economic consequences. The termination of the five-year transit agreement, which expired on January 1, 2025, has sparked tensions across Europe, particularly in Eastern European countries reliant on Russian energy supplies.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the move, stating that Ukraine would not allow Russia to “earn additional billions on our blood.” In contrast, Poland’s government celebrated the cut-off as another victory over Moscow, further isolating Russia from European markets. Meanwhile, the European Commission assured EU states that they were prepared for the change, with most countries able to adjust to the disruption. However, Moldova, which is not an EU member, has already begun experiencing energy shortages.

Russian energy giant Gazprom confirmed that gas exports via Ukraine ceased on Wednesday at 08:00 local time (05:00 GMT). This marks the first time since 1991 that Russia will no longer send gas to Europe through this route. While the immediate impact has been relatively mild for many EU nations, the symbolic and strategic ramifications are profound. Although Russia has lost an important market, President Vladimir Putin asserts that the EU will be the most affected by the disruption.

The EU had significantly reduced its reliance on Russian gas since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with Russian gas comprising less than 10% of EU imports in 2023 compared to 40% in 2021. Despite this decline, several Eastern EU countries, including Slovakia and Austria, remain heavily dependent on Russian supplies, making the cessation of gas flow a critical issue. Slovakia, in particular, has become the main entry point for Russian gas into the EU and now faces higher costs for alternative routes. Slovakia’s Prime Minister, Robert Fico, warned of “drastic” consequences for EU countries following the deal’s expiry, and tensions escalated when he threatened to halt electricity exports to Ukraine. Zelensky accused Fico of aiding Moscow’s war efforts and weakening Ukraine.

Poland has pledged support to Ukraine in case Slovakia follows through on its threat, emphasizing the availability of alternative gas routes through terminals in Croatia and connections from Germany and Poland. Poland has also been sourcing gas from the U.S., Qatar, and the North Sea.

Moldova, which relies on Russian gas for power generation, is facing severe challenges. The breakaway region of Transnistria, which depends on Moldova for gas supplies, has already been affected by the cutoff, with heating and hot water suspended. Moldova’s Prime Minister, Dorin Recean, accused Russia of using energy as a political weapon, exacerbating the situation amid a winter cold snap.

The European Union has increasingly turned to liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the U.S., as well as piped gas from Norway, to reduce its dependence on Russia. In December, the European Commission announced plans to fully replace gas transit through Ukraine with alternative sources in the coming years.

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Investing in 2025: A Beginner’s Guide to Securing Your Financial Future

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As the new year begins, many individuals are setting resolutions, and for those aiming to improve their finances, investing could be the right step forward. While the idea of investing may seem daunting, financial experts emphasize that starting small and understanding the basics can lead to long-term benefits.

Breaking Barriers to Investing

Common reasons people avoid investing include fears about risk, a perceived lack of wealth, or a lack of confidence. Yet, investing offers more than just potential profits—it can act as a hedge against inflation, unlike traditional savings.

Financial experts suggest starting with basic investment types, including bonds, stocks, and pooled funds, to understand the landscape and build confidence.

Understanding Bonds

Bonds function like an “I owe you” from a company or government. Investors lend money and receive interest, known as the coupon rate, at regular intervals until the bond matures.

Yield, a key term in bonds, combines the coupon rate and potential market profits to reflect the bond’s profitability. Credit ratings also play a vital role, with higher-rated bonds being safer investments.

Stocks and Shares

Shares, or equities, allow investors to buy a stake in a company, effectively making them part-owners. Share values fluctuate based on company performance and economic conditions, making them a medium-to-long-term investment.

Jason Hollands of Evelyn Partners highlights the importance of patience: “Investing should be long-term because prices fluctuate. You need to tolerate the downs as well as the ups.”

Dividends, another income source, are distributed to shareholders, either as cash or additional shares, further enhancing returns.

Diversifying Through Pooled Funds

Diversification is crucial in investing, often summed up as “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” For those with limited funds, pooled investments like mutual funds or ETFs (exchange-traded funds) can help spread risk.

While mutual funds are actively managed by professionals, ETFs often track specific indexes like the S&P 500, offering a cost-effective, passive investing strategy. “Taking trading costs out can significantly impact your returns,” said Colm Moore of Moore Wealth Management.

Alternative Investments

Beyond stocks and bonds, assets like gold, real estate, and cryptocurrencies provide additional options. However, factors such as liquidity and market conditions should be considered. Gold, for instance, is a safe-haven asset but lacks dividend income.

Expert Advice for Beginners

Financial experts advise against impulsive decisions based on market trends. They also recommend paying off high-interest debts and ensuring an emergency fund before investing.

Moore cautions against panic during market downturns: “The biggest mistake is pulling money out during lows. It’s about time in the market, not timing the market.”

With proper planning and patience, investing in 2025 can be a significant step toward financial security.

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Global House Prices Expected to Rise, with Variations Across Countries

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Global house prices are forecasted to increase in the next two years, driven by booming demand and limited supply in most countries, according to a recent report from Fitch Ratings. The report predicts nominal home prices will rise in the low to mid-single digits for many nations in 2025 and 2026.

The surge in home prices is primarily attributed to a persistent housing supply shortage, which cannot keep pace with rising demand. Factors such as low unemployment, real wage growth, and falling inflation have boosted disposable incomes, increasing the purchasing power of homebuyers across many regions.

Among the countries expected to see the strongest growth in house prices are the Netherlands, Canada, Brazil, and Mexico. In Canada and the Netherlands, government programs aimed at supporting first-time homebuyers and rising wages are fueling demand. Meanwhile, in Brazil and Mexico, higher construction costs are expected to drive price growth.

In Europe, most countries are experiencing a rise in housing demand, fueled by improving real household incomes in the eurozone. However, France is an outlier, where home prices are expected to decline due to affordability issues and political uncertainty. Despite this, the rate of decline is expected to slow, with prices possibly stabilizing or even increasing by 2026.

The Netherlands is forecasted to see price growth slow slightly, from 13% this year to between 8% and 10% in 2025, with a further slowdown in 2026. Limited housing supply, rising construction costs, and a growing population are expected to continue driving demand. Despite the tight fiscal policy limiting purchasing power, government support programs may further boost first-time homebuyer activity.

In Spain, house prices are projected to rise by 4% to 6% in 2025, continuing the upward trend seen in 2024. The increase is supported by growing consumer confidence due to falling interest rates and lower inflation, as well as a limited supply of new homes, which covers only half of new household formation.

Germany is also expected to experience moderate price growth of 2% to 4% in 2025 and 2026, spurred by increasing rents, which make purchasing more attractive, despite slower wage growth.

Meanwhile, in the UK and Denmark, home prices are projected to rise modestly by 2% to 4%, supported by lower mortgage interest rates and stronger labor markets. In Italy, price growth is expected to be more restrained, ranging from 0.5% to 2.5%, as high mortgage rates dampen demand.

While the report highlights the ongoing pressure on housing supply due to high construction costs and regulatory constraints, it also notes the potential impact of climate change. Increasing demand for energy-efficient homes could shape future market trends, especially with the rising cost of energy.

Overall, while global house prices are expected to rise, various factors, including government policies, interest rates, and economic conditions, will influence the pace and extent of the growth in different regions.

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