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China has introduced a series of new measures aimed at reviving its struggling economy as it faces the prospect of a second term for former U.S. President Donald Trump. The country is set to tackle massive local government debt in an effort to prevent it from further hindering economic growth.

Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election has raised concerns in Beijing, particularly over his pledge to implement steep tariffs on Chinese-made goods, with some estimates suggesting tariffs could reach as high as 60%. This potential trade conflict is expected to undermine Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambitious plan to transform the country into a global technology leader, further straining relations between the world’s two largest economies.

China’s economic recovery has faced significant challenges since the pandemic, with a property slump, rising government debt, and increasing unemployment slowing growth. Low consumer demand has compounded these problems, leading to a sharp decline in economic activity. Against this backdrop, the latest economic measures, announced by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC), are seen as crucial to stabilizing the economy.

Trump’s trade policies during his first term were already painful for China, with tariffs on Chinese goods reaching as high as 25%. Experts like China analyst Bill Bishop suggest that Trump’s return to the White House would likely result in an escalation of tariffs, particularly if he believes that China has not fulfilled its trade commitments. “I think we should believe that he means it when he talks about tariffs,” said Bishop. “He sees China as having reneged on his trade deal and thinks China and Covid cost him the 2020 election.”

While the U.S.-China trade tensions didn’t subside after Trump left office in 2021, with the Biden administration maintaining and even expanding some tariffs, China is now in a more vulnerable position. The economy has struggled to return to pre-pandemic growth levels, especially after abandoning strict Covid restrictions two years ago. Instead of a quick recovery, the country has experienced ongoing economic disappointments.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its growth forecast for China, now expecting a modest 4.8% expansion in 2024, below Beijing’s target of “about 5%”. The IMF’s projection for 2025 suggests even slower growth, with an anticipated rate of just 4.5%.

In response, China’s latest plan includes an injection of 6 trillion yuan ($840 billion) between now and 2026 to help local governments manage their growing debt burdens. For years, local governments have relied on borrowing to finance infrastructure projects, but a downturn in the property sector has left many cities unable to meet their financial obligations. The new measures aim to alleviate this crisis and support economic stability as the country navigates increasingly turbulent global economic conditions.

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Bayer Reports Lower Q3 Earnings, Stock Price Drops Amid Regulatory and Market Challenges

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German pharmaceutical giant Bayer reported a decline in its third-quarter 2024 earnings on Tuesday, with net sales falling to €10.0 billion, down from €10.3 billion in the same period last year. The company’s stock price dropped by 12.12% to €21.46 following the release of the disappointing results.

Bayer’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for the third quarter amounted to €1.3 billion, a sharp decline from €1.7 billion in Q3 2023. The EBITDA margin also shrank, from 16.3% to 12.6% year-over-year, signaling ongoing pressure on profitability. Core earnings per share (EPS) fell from €0.38 in Q3 2023 to €0.24 in the same quarter this year.

The company saw mixed results across its divisions. Crop Science sales fell by 2% in the first nine months of the year, while Consumer Health sales rose by 3%. Pharmaceuticals performed better, with a 4% increase in sales. However, Bayer continues to face challenges in its crop protection operations, particularly due to pricing pressures and a weak agricultural market in Latin America. The company also cited ongoing regulatory challenges as a factor impacting its performance.

Looking ahead, Bayer warned that earnings were likely to fall further in 2025, citing persistent challenges in its crop protection business and regulatory hurdles. This forecast has raised concerns among investors, further contributing to the decline in the company’s share price.

Bill Anderson, CEO of Bayer, acknowledged the company’s progress in some areas, particularly in its pharmaceutical division. “We’ve had a good run of positive readouts in Pharma, and great momentum on our launch assets. We see outstanding first results out of the new model,” he said in the company’s Q3 media update. However, he also highlighted areas requiring more attention, including the regulatory challenges and generic pricing pressures facing Bayer’s crop protection business. “Regardless of whether these things are entirely in our control, we need to manage them with resources and decisions that are in our control,” Anderson added.

Due to the challenges in the agricultural market, Bayer lowered its EBITDA forecast for the full year 2024, now projecting a range of €10.4 billion to €10.7 billion, down from the previous range of €10.7 billion to €11.3 billion. Despite this, the company maintained its forecasts for currency-adjusted core earnings per share, currency- and portfolio-adjusted sales growth, and free cash flow.

In a positive development, Bayer recently announced a collaboration with Impli, a deep-tech start-up focused on real-time hormone monitoring for women’s health. This partnership aims to improve fertility treatments such as in vitro fertilization (IVF) by making them safer, more successful, and more accessible.

Aquil Harjivan, head of front-end innovation for Consumer Health at Bayer, expressed excitement about the partnership, noting that new technologies are helping address significant consumer health needs. Impli’s CEO, Anna Luisa Schaffgotsch, emphasized the opportunity to innovate in women’s hormonal health, with Bayer’s expertise offering a platform to drive meaningful change in the field.

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Vistara Airlines Ceases Operations Amid Merger with Air India

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Indian full-service carrier Vistara will operate its final flight on Monday, marking the end of its nine-year run in the skies. A joint venture between Singapore Airlines and Tata Sons, Vistara is set to merge with Tata-owned Air India, forming a single airline entity that will combine their networks and fleets.

The merger will see all Vistara operations, including helpdesk kiosks and ticketing offices, transferred to Air India. The transition process, including migrating Vistara passengers and their loyalty programmes to Air India, has been underway for several months. According to an Air India spokesperson, meals, service ware, and other aspects of the passenger experience have been upgraded to reflect a blend of both airlines’ offerings.

While Vistara has been praised for its high ratings in food, service, and cabin quality, the decision to retire the brand has drawn criticism from fans, branding experts, and aviation analysts. Vistara’s loyal customer base, known for its appreciation of the airline’s premium in-flight experience, faces uncertainty about whether Air India can maintain these standards.

The consolidation, aviation analysts argue, is primarily driven by the need to address Vistara’s financial losses. Mark Martin, an aviation analyst, suggested that Air India is “being suckered into taking a loss-making airline” and that mergers should strengthen airlines, not merely eliminate losses. However, both Air India and Vistara have seen improvements in their operating metrics, with annual losses reduced by more than half.

Despite these improvements, the merger has been far from smooth. Challenges have arisen, such as pilot shortages leading to flight cancellations and mass sick leave taken by Vistara crew members over salary structure alignments. Complaints about service quality on Air India, including viral videos of malfunctioning seats and entertainment systems, have further compounded concerns.

To address these issues, Tata has announced a $400 million programme to upgrade Air India’s aircraft interiors and has placed orders for hundreds of new planes. However, analysts believe the ongoing “turnaround” is still incomplete, and the merger may complicate the situation.

From a branding perspective, the merger has also raised concerns. Harish Bijoor, a brand strategy specialist, expressed disappointment over the loss of Vistara, calling it a “gold standard for Indian aviation.” He suggested that maintaining Vistara as a distinct brand, with Air India prefixed to it, would have allowed the airline to improve its service standards before absorbing Vistara’s superior offering.

Operational challenges are expected as well, particularly in communication and cultural integration. Passengers may arrive expecting Vistara flights, only to find Air India branding. Moreover, Vistara’s agile workforce may struggle to adjust to Air India’s more bureaucratic systems.

Despite these hurdles, many industry observers agree that the merger was inevitable. With two loss-making carriers under the Tata umbrella, consolidating operations makes financial sense. The combined strength of Air India and Vistara is seen as a better positioning to compete with market leader IndiGo, particularly with Air India’s expanded fleet and workforce.

Ultimately, while the demise of Vistara leaves a void in India’s premium airline market, the future remains uncertain as Air India works to fill that gap. For now, many Vistara loyalists will be watching closely to see if Air India can successfully elevate its service to meet the high standards Vistara once set.

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Brazilian Businessman Tied to Notorious Crime Group Shot Dead at São Paulo Airport

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A Brazilian businessman with ties to one of the country’s most powerful criminal organizations has been shot dead at São Paulo’s Guarulhos Airport. Antônio Vinicius Gritzbach, who had recently entered into a plea agreement to provide information about the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC), was killed in a brazen attack outside the airport terminal.

Gritzbach, a former member of the PCC, had been collaborating with local prosecutors, agreeing to share details about how he helped the gang launder millions of dollars. His cooperation reportedly led to death threats from the PCC, which is notorious for its violent tactics and extensive reach across Brazil and beyond.

The shooting occurred as two men, wearing hooded jackets, exited a car near the airport terminal. Security camera footage captured the moment the assailants opened fire with submachine guns. Gritzbach, who was carrying a bag at the time, dropped it and attempted to flee, but was shot multiple times and died at the scene. Three others were injured in the attack, though their conditions have not been disclosed.

The PCC, one of Brazil’s most feared and influential criminal groups, was founded in the early 1990s and has since become a significant force in international drug trafficking, particularly cocaine. According to reports, the gang has expanded its operations well beyond Latin America, with a notable presence in Europe. A report from Portuguese security services last year indicated that the PCC had up to 1,000 associates in Lisbon alone.

Gritzbach, a cryptocurrency expert, was considered an integral figure in the PCC’s money-laundering activities. Under the terms of his plea bargain with São Paulo prosecutors, he was expected to provide information that would help authorities locate other PCC members and deliver crucial documents. In exchange, Gritzbach was promised a judicial pardon and a reduction in his sentence for his involvement in money laundering.

The PCC is estimated to generate nearly $1 billion annually from international cocaine trafficking, according to São Paulo’s organized crime taskforce. Gritzbach’s killing highlights the dangers faced by individuals attempting to cooperate with authorities in the fight against organized crime, particularly when dealing with a group as powerful and ruthless as the PCC.

Following the attack, police quickly responded by deploying officers to the airport and the surrounding area. Investigations are ongoing, but the murder underscores the continued threat posed by the PCC in Brazil and beyond.

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