Economists Predict Potential Euro Weakening in Case of Trump Victory
As the U.S. elections approach, economists largely agree that a victory for Donald Trump could weaken the euro against the dollar. The single currency has already fallen more than 2% in the month leading up to the vote, reflecting increasing concerns about a Trump win. Analysts warn that if Republicans achieve a “red sweep” by securing full control of Congress, the euro could potentially fall to parity or below against the dollar.
One of the primary mechanisms for this shift would be Trump’s proposed tariffs on foreign goods, including a potential 60% tariff on Chinese imports and a 10% tariff on products from other nations. Economists caution that such tariffs would likely drive inflation in the United States, as the cost of imported goods rises and companies pass these costs onto consumers. This inflation could prompt a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve, which may need to raise interest rates to combat price pressures linked to the tariffs.
In contrast, Europe could face a slowdown in economic growth due to the U.S. protectionist policies, potentially prompting the European Central Bank (ECB) to adopt a looser monetary policy to support its economy. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates while the ECB eases, the interest rate differential could lead to a stronger dollar, further pressuring the euro.
In addition to tariffs, a Trump administration may also implement stricter immigration policies. This reduction in available labor could push wages higher as companies compete for workers, contributing to inflation and reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s need for tighter monetary policy. Such developments would likely bolster the dollar and disadvantage the euro.
Luca Santos, a foreign exchange analyst at ACY Securities, noted that a Trump victory could result in policy changes aimed at boosting U.S. economic growth, leading to a stronger dollar as investors anticipate a favorable climate for U.S. assets. Similarly, Georgette Boele, Senior FX & Precious Metals Strategist at ABN Amro, highlighted the impact of Trump’s trade policies on the dollar, pointing out that recent polling changes have heightened volatility in the dollar ahead of the election.
Strategists at BBVA predict that if Trump wins, especially with a full Republican Congress, the euro could drop below $1.08. Conversely, they foresee a weaker dollar should Vice President Kamala Harris win the election. Goldman Sachs offered one of the most pessimistic forecasts for the euro, suggesting it could weaken by up to 10% under Trump’s policies, potentially bringing it below parity with the dollar.
Historically, the initial months of Trump’s presidency saw the dollar strengthen, with the euro declining from $1.10 to $1.0340 by early 2017. However, as Trump’s economic agenda faced delays and eurozone growth improved, the euro later appreciated against the dollar.
While a drop to euro-dollar parity is not certain, renewed U.S. protectionism, rising inflation, and diverging central bank policies could all significantly influence the euro’s trajectory in the coming months, particularly if tariffs adversely affect European exports. Investors are closely monitoring these developments as the election draws near.
Business
Trump Names Brooke Rollins as Agriculture Secretary, Finalizing Cabinet Roster
Former President Donald Trump announced Brooke Rollins as his nominee for Secretary of Agriculture, marking the completion of his cabinet lineup. The nomination, revealed late Saturday, sees Rollins, a longtime Trump ally and head of the America First Policy Institute, poised to lead the department responsible for U.S. farm policy.
“As our next Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke will spearhead the effort to protect American farmers, who are truly the backbone of our Country,” Trump said in a statement.
Who Is Brooke Rollins?
Rollins, a prominent figure in Trump’s political orbit, co-founded and leads the America First Policy Institute, a think tank aligned with Trump’s “Make America Great Again” agenda. She previously served as director of the White House Office of American Innovation and acting director of the Domestic Policy Council during Trump’s first administration.
Her roots in agriculture trace back to her upbringing on a farm, where she participated in programs like Future Farmers of America and 4-H. A graduate of Texas A&M University with a degree in agricultural development, Rollins also has a background in law.
If confirmed by the Senate, Rollins would oversee farm subsidies, nutrition programs, meat inspections, and forestry policies. She would also play a pivotal role in trade negotiations, including the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, potentially implementing Trump’s proposed tariffs.
Completing the Cabinet
Rollins’ nomination concludes Trump’s series of cabinet picks, a process that has drawn significant attention for its mix of loyalists and controversial figures. The 15-member cabinet comprises leaders of executive departments, all requiring Senate confirmation.
Some of Trump’s choices have sparked debates, including Robert Kennedy Jr., nominated to head the Department of Health and Human Services. Kennedy, a former environmental lawyer and vaccine skeptic, previously ran against Trump as an independent before endorsing him.
Other selections faced turbulence, such as former Florida congressman Matt Gaetz, nominated for attorney general. Gaetz withdrew his nomination amid allegations of sexual misconduct and drug use, which he denies. Senators reportedly expressed concerns about his confirmability. Trump swiftly replaced Gaetz with Pam Bondi, a former Florida attorney general.
Pete Hegseth, Trump’s pick for another cabinet role, also faced scrutiny over allegations of sexual assault from 2017, which he denies. Education Secretary nominee Linda McMahon, a former WWE executive, has been criticized for her lack of experience in education.
With Rollins’ nomination, Trump has solidified his cabinet team, though the confirmation process promises to be a contentious battle in the Senate.
Business
Bitcoin Nears $100,000 as Record-Breaking Rally Continues
Bitcoin surged to unprecedented levels, crossing $99,000 overnight, marking a dramatic rally that has seen the cryptocurrency rise over 40% in just two weeks. Trading at $98,882 early Friday, according to CoinDesk, the digital asset is on the cusp of breaching the symbolic $100,000 threshold, a stark recovery from its $17,000 low after the collapse of FTX two years ago.
Drivers of the Rally
The rally comes as the cryptocurrency industry anticipates a more favorable regulatory environment under President-elect Donald Trump. A vocal supporter of cryptocurrency in recent months, Trump has pledged to make the United States the “crypto capital of the planet,” with plans for a bitcoin “strategic reserve.” His campaign’s acceptance of cryptocurrency donations and his appearance at a bitcoin conference have further boosted sentiment in the market.
Additionally, the approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) earlier this year has attracted significant institutional and retail investment. These ETFs recorded $6 billion in trade volume during election week, according to data from Kaiko, further propelling bitcoin’s rise.
Regulatory Shifts and Economic Context
Market players are hopeful for regulatory clarity as Gary Gensler, the SEC chair who led a crackdown on crypto companies under President Joe Biden, is set to step down on January 20. Many in the industry view Gensler’s departure as an opportunity for a policy shift from enforcement-focused measures to more comprehensive legislative frameworks.
However, the bullish sentiment comes amid lingering concerns about the long-term stability of the market. Citi macro strategist David Glass noted that while current momentum is promising, the impact of regulatory changes will take time to materialize.
Risks and Volatility
Cryptocurrency remains inherently volatile, with past performance showcasing dramatic price fluctuations. For instance, bitcoin fell from nearly $69,000 in November 2021 to below $17,000 by late 2022 during the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes and the fallout from FTX’s collapse.
Experts caution that while bitcoin’s rally has been extraordinary, risks of corrections persist. “There’s no magic eight ball,” said Adam Morgan McCarthy, a research analyst at Kaiko. He advised investors to remain cautious, especially those with smaller portfolios, emphasizing the importance of managing risk responsibly.
Environmental Concerns
Bitcoin mining’s environmental impact continues to draw scrutiny. A recent study by the United Nations University found that the carbon footprint of global bitcoin mining in 2020-2021 was equivalent to the emissions from burning 84 billion pounds of coal. Despite increased use of cleaner energy, critics argue that bitcoin’s reliance on pollutive sources like coal remains significant.
As bitcoin approaches the $100,000 milestone, the cryptocurrency market faces a mix of optimism and caution. Investors and industry players alike are watching closely to see whether the rally can sustain its momentum in the coming weeks.
Business
EU New Car Registrations Rise in October, But Electric Vehicle Sales Struggle
New car registrations across the European Union rose slightly in October, driven by strong performances in Germany and Spain, according to the latest data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA). The EU saw a 1.1% increase in new car registrations for the month, with notable growth in two major markets.
Germany’s car registrations rebounded by 6%, reversing three months of declines, while Spain experienced a robust 7.2% increase. However, not all countries saw growth. Italy’s new car registrations fell by 9.1%, and France also experienced a decline, with a 11.1% drop in registrations.
Looking at the year so far, new car registrations in the EU have risen by 0.7% from January to October, reaching approximately 8.9 million units. Italy saw a modest increase of 0.9%, while Spain posted a 4.9% rise. However, both Germany and France have faced declines in new car registrations, with Germany down by 0.4% and France experiencing a 2.7% drop over the same period.
Sigrid de Vries, ACEA’s director general, commented on the trend, highlighting the challenges faced by the electric vehicle (EV) market. “The latest year-to-date figures on market volume for battery electric (-4.9%) and plug-in hybrid cars (-7.9%) underline the urgent need to increase efforts to support the transition to zero-emissions vehicles,” de Vries said. She stressed the need for greater incentives and an expanded network of charging stations to encourage consumer adoption.
Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) have seen a decline in sales, with a 4.9% drop in registrations in the first 10 months of 2024 compared to the same period last year. This decrease was primarily driven by a significant 26.6% drop in registrations in Germany. However, BEV registrations in October saw a slight uptick, increasing by 2.4% to 124,907 units.
Similarly, plug-in hybrid vehicle registrations also faced challenges. These vehicles dropped by 7.9% year-to-date, with disappointing performances in Italy and France. In October, plug-in hybrid car registrations fell 7.2%, reducing their market share to 7.7%, down from 8.4% in October 2023.
The slump in EV sales can be attributed to a combination of factors, including rising energy prices, insufficient incentives, and a lack of charging infrastructure. Additionally, higher tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, following concerns over government subsidies, have made these cars significantly more expensive in Europe. This price increase, along with ongoing economic uncertainty and rising interest rates, has led to a dampened consumer appetite for electric vehicles.
With global economic pressures and geopolitical uncertainty also weighing on consumer sentiment, the EU faces significant hurdles in meeting its ambitious targets for the transition to zero-emissions vehicles.
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