Russia has supplied North Korea with over a million barrels of oil since March 2024, a significant breach of UN sanctions, according to new satellite imagery analysis from the UK-based Open Source Centre. The oil is believed to be exchanged for weapons and troops sent by Pyongyang to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, experts and UK officials say.

The satellite images, shared exclusively with the BBC, show North Korean oil tankers making 43 trips to Russia’s Far East oil terminal over the past eight months. The tankers, often seen arriving empty and departing full, have been tracked by the Open Source Centre, which estimates that the transfers have provided North Korea with more than double the UN-imposed annual oil cap of 500,000 barrels. The cap, intended to limit North Korea’s fuel supply to prevent further development of its nuclear program, has been consistently violated by Russia.

The first documented oil transfer occurred on March 7, 2024, following reports that North Korea had been supplying weapons to Russia. These shipments have continued amid reports that thousands of North Korean troops are being deployed to fight alongside Russian forces, with the most recent transfer recorded in early November.

Experts, including Joe Byrne from the Open Source Centre, emphasize that these illicit oil shipments offer North Korea a much-needed lifeline, stabilizing the country’s economy. “This steady flow of oil gives North Korea a level of stability it hasn’t had since sanctions were introduced,” Byrne says. Hugh Griffiths, a former UN sanctions panel leader, argues that these transfers are “fueling Putin’s war machine”—a trade of oil for missiles, artillery, and soldiers.

North Korea, the only country in the world banned from buying oil on the open market, relies heavily on illicit oil to meet its needs. The country consumes around nine million barrels of refined petroleum annually, far exceeding the 500,000 barrels allowed under UN sanctions. Historically, it has resorted to risky ship-to-ship transfers to obtain fuel, but the recent direct oil shipments from Russia offer a more reliable and possibly free source of oil.

While Russia has not responded to requests for comment, the continued oil transfers and growing military ties between Moscow and Pyongyang suggest a significant shift in global dynamics. The United Nations, however, faces mounting challenges in enforcing sanctions, particularly after Russia’s veto in March 2024 led to the disbandment of the UN sanctions panel monitoring North Korean violations.

These developments raise concerns about the increasing cooperation between Russia and North Korea, with both regimes seemingly ignoring international law. Experts warn that this alliance could have dangerous implications, including the potential sharing of military technology that could further destabilize the global security landscape. As tensions rise, officials in South Korea and the US are closely monitoring the situation, with some experts fearing that North Korea’s increasing leverage could lead to even more dangerous military collaborations.

Russia has reported that Ukraine launched U.S.-supplied long-range missiles into its territory on Tuesday, a day after Washington gave its approval for such attacks. According to Russia’s Ministry of Defence, the missiles targeted the Bryansk region in western Russia, marking the first use of the Army Tactical Missile System (Atacms) against Russian territory.

The Russian military claimed that five of the missiles were intercepted by air defence systems, while one missile was reportedly damaged. The fragments of the damaged missile allegedly caused a fire at a military facility in the region, although no further details about casualties or the extent of the damage were immediately available.

This missile strike follows a recent decision by the U.S. government to allow Ukraine to use the advanced Atacms system to target Russian positions within internationally-recognized Russian borders. Prior to this approval, the U.S. had restricted the use of such missiles to areas within the Ukrainian territory occupied by Russian forces, citing concerns over escalating the conflict.

Russia quickly condemned the missile strike and vowed to “react accordingly.” The Kremlin has previously warned that any escalation of the war, especially involving attacks on Russian territory, would lead to a strengthened military response.

The deployment of Atacms marks a significant development in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, as the missile system has a range of up to 300 kilometers, giving Ukraine the ability to strike deeper into Russian-held territories.

Washington’s decision to allow the use of these missiles is seen as a key step in increasing military support for Ukraine, as it continues its efforts to defend its sovereignty against Russia’s ongoing invasion. However, the move has raised concerns about further intensifying the conflict and potentially drawing in more direct involvement from NATO members.

The Ukrainian government has yet to officially comment on the strike, but the use of such advanced weaponry is expected to have a significant impact on the trajectory of the war. As the conflict enters its second year, both sides continue to engage in intense military operations, with international diplomacy struggling to find a path to peace.