A recent poll from Iowa has emerged as a potential game-changer in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, indicating that Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by three points in a state that has not supported a Democratic candidate since Barack Obama’s victory in 2012. The Des Moines Register poll, released on Saturday evening, underscores the competitive nature of this election cycle as both candidates vie for every available vote.
Although Iowa carries only six electoral votes, losing the state could complicate Trump’s path to re-election, as he aims to reclaim key battlegrounds from Harris and the Democrats. This latest survey is noteworthy not just for its results but also for its source: Ann Selzer, whose polling firm is highly regarded for its historical accuracy in Iowa.
The Selzer poll indicates that Harris’s lead is primarily driven by substantial support among college-educated white women. Many of these voters are reportedly mobilized by strong opposition to the rollback of abortion rights that has occurred since Trump’s first term. Iowa currently enforces a ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, a point at which many women may not yet be aware of their pregnancy. While exceptions are made for cases of rape, incest, serious fetal abnormalities, or threats to the mother’s life, the law has been met with widespread discontent, even among traditionally Republican-leaning women voters.
Upon the poll’s release, the Trump campaign swiftly responded with a press release highlighting a competing poll that shows their candidate maintaining a healthy lead in Iowa. This reaction reflects the heightened tensions and competitive atmosphere of the election as both campaigns prepare for a long fight ahead.
Nationally, polling indicates a closely contested race, with no clear frontrunner emerging in seven key swing states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona. The political landscape is further complicated by record-breaking early voting in several states, leading some analysts to question the polling industry’s ability to accurately reflect the electorate’s makeup in the current environment.
Moreover, since Harris took over the Democratic campaign from President Joe Biden earlier this summer, there has been relatively little presidential polling in several traditionally safe states. As both candidates gear up for the election, the shifting dynamics in Iowa could play a significant role in shaping their strategies moving forward. With less than a year until the election, every poll will be scrutinized as Harris and Trump battle for the crucial votes that could determine the next presidency.
