Rebel forces launched their largest offensive against the Syrian government in years, capturing significant portions of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, by Sunday and advancing towards Hama in the south.
The surprise attack, led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), marked a significant escalation in the long-standing conflict. The offensive prompted the first Russian airstrikes on Aleppo since 2016, forcing the Syrian military to withdraw from the city.
HTS, an evolution of the Al Qaeda-linked group Jabhat al-Nusra, spearheaded the assault. Originally formed in 2011 with the involvement of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the group broke away from Al Qaeda in 2016 under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani. Now the dominant force in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province, HTS has long been regarded as one of the most effective yet controversial groups opposing President Bashar al-Assad.
Idlib: A Rebel Stronghold
Since the height of the Syrian conflict, Idlib has remained a rebel stronghold, housing approximately four million people, many displaced from other parts of the country. HTS governs much of the region, although its rule has been criticized for alleged human rights abuses and infighting with rival factions.
A 2020 ceasefire brokered by Russia, Assad’s ally, and Turkey, which supports rebel groups, had largely kept Idlib quiet until now. However, recent Israeli offensives targeting Iranian-linked militias, including Hezbollah, have weakened Assad’s support network, leaving his forces vulnerable to renewed attacks.
Strategic Shifts and Regional Impacts
Aleppo, a city symbolic of rebel resistance and government victories, was one of the bloodiest battlegrounds of the war. Assad’s military, already stretched thin and reliant on Russian airpower and Iranian-backed militias, has faced renewed pressure as Israel intensifies strikes on Iran-aligned groups operating in Syria.
These developments appear to have emboldened HTS to expand its ambitions beyond Idlib, reigniting conflict in areas previously under government control. The group’s sudden offensive highlights shifting dynamics within Syria’s fragmented war and raises questions about the sustainability of Assad’s grip on power.
Renewed Uncertainty
For the past four years, Assad’s rule has gone largely uncontested in major cities, with Kurdish-majority areas in the east and militant-controlled Idlib remaining exceptions. However, the latest developments suggest a potential escalation in a conflict many believed was winding down.
The outcome of this offensive could reshape Syria’s political and military landscape, as HTS seeks to challenge Assad’s dominance while leveraging its position as a de facto authority in Idlib. The question now is whether Syria’s fractured alliances and external pressures will lead to renewed conflict on a broader scale.
