Study Warns of 39 Million Potential Deaths Due to Antibiotic Resistance
A landmark study has revealed that more than 39 million people worldwide could die from antibiotic-resistant infections over the next 25 years, with an additional 130 million potentially succumbing to related causes. The study, published in The Lancet, highlights the escalating threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) as global leaders prepare to address the issue at a high-level meeting in New York.
AMR occurs when bacteria and other pathogens evolve to resist antibiotics, often due to overuse in medicine, agriculture, and animal farming. This resistance has led to a significant increase in the difficulty of treating infections. Since 1990, AMR-related infections have killed approximately one million people annually, according to the study conducted by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project.
The study, which analyzed 520 million records across 204 countries, projects that by 2050, AMR could directly cause 1.91 million deaths and contribute to 6.31 million deaths from related causes. “This is really a very silent pandemic, and it’s growing,” warned Ahmed Ogwell, vice president of global health strategy at the UN Foundation. “Our attention needs to be there now.”
From 1990 to 2021, the study found a 60 percent reduction in AMR-related deaths among children under five, thanks to improved vaccination programs and infection control. However, deaths among adults aged 70 and older surged by more than 80 percent during the same period, highlighting the growing vulnerability of aging populations.
The study also noted that regions such as South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to face significant impacts due to AMR. Lower- and middle-income countries are particularly challenged, as many lack access to antibiotics, compounding the issue.
In high-income countries, annual AMR-attributable deaths are anticipated to increase from 125,000 to 192,000 between 2021 and 2050. This underscores the need for urgent action across all regions, regardless of economic status.
Next week, the United Nations General Assembly will hold its second high-level meeting on AMR since 2016. Global leaders are expected to endorse a political commitment to combat AMR, although recent negotiations have diluted some targets. For example, a goal to reduce antimicrobials in animal farming by at least 30 percent was replaced with a less specific promise to “strive meaningfully” to reduce usage.
Dr. Sally Davies, the UK’s special envoy on AMR, has called for stronger governance, improved data collection, and incentives for pharmaceutical companies to develop new antibiotics. She also advocates for an independent scientific panel on AMR and greater focus on the risks to food systems and the environment.
The Lancet study suggests that significant reductions in AMR deaths could be achieved with improved infection control, broader vaccinations, and better antibiotic stewardship. For instance, better access to antibiotics and enhanced infection care could prevent 92 million deaths between 2025 and 2050.
As global leaders prepare to tackle this growing crisis, the study highlights the need for a coordinated response and individual actions, such as proper hand hygiene and responsible antibiotic use.
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