Drivers in Portugal are expected to benefit from a significant fall in petrol and diesel prices from Monday, with industry forecasts pointing to reductions of more than 12 cents per litre.
The Automobile Club of Portugal (ACP) expects diesel prices to fall by around 12 cents per litre from August 10, while petrol could drop by approximately 12.5 cents.
If the forecast is confirmed, the average price of regular diesel would decline to about €1.931 per litre, compared with €2.051 on Friday. The average price of 95-octane petrol is expected to fall to €1.855 per litre from €1.980.
The ACP cautioned that the figures remain estimates and could change before the start of next week. Its forecast is based on crude oil prices recorded at Thursday’s market close, meaning further movements in oil and refined fuel prices could affect the final figures.
Official data from Portugal’s Directorate-General for Energy and Geology shows that fuel prices vary between filling stations. Daily national averages are calculated using prices reported by service stations and weighted according to the volumes sold during the latest available period. Discounts offered through fleet cards and other schemes are also reflected in the figures.
Because Portugal’s fuel market is liberalised, motorists may continue to see different prices depending on the station they use.
The expected reduction comes after weeks of volatility in international energy markets linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Military tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran have affected shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a major global energy route through which a significant share of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies passes.
The disruption has contributed to sharp movements in crude oil and fuel prices, increasing pressure on consumers and businesses.
Portugal’s government has responded to rising pump prices by using temporary changes to the fuel tax, known as the ISP. Under the current approach, the government can increase the tax reduction when fuel prices rise sharply, helping limit the impact on motorists.
Officials are expected to review the level of the ISP adjustment again before next week’s prices are finalised. Any change in the tax reduction could affect the size of the expected fall at petrol stations.
For motorists, the projected decline would provide some relief after recent increases. However, the final prices will depend on developments in international oil markets and government tax measures before Monday.
The ACP said motorists should therefore treat the current figures as forecasts rather than guaranteed prices, with changes possible before the new weekly prices take effect.
