France’s Borrowing Costs Surge After Moody’s Downgrade
The yield on France’s 10-year government bonds surpassed 3% on Monday, as investors reacted to Moody’s unexpected downgrade of the nation’s credit rating. The move has intensified scrutiny on France’s public finances, with borrowing costs climbing and the spread between French and German bonds widening sharply.
Moody’s Downgrade Triggers Concerns
Moody’s downgraded France’s long-term issuer rating from Aa2 to Aa3 over the weekend, citing concerns about the country’s fiscal sustainability and political challenges. The agency’s outlook for France was revised from negative to stable, aligning the nation’s rating with those issued by the other major credit agencies.
In its statement, Moody’s warned that “political fragmentation is more likely to impede meaningful fiscal consolidation,” adding that public finances are expected to remain under pressure for several years. France’s deficit is projected to exceed 6% of GDP in 2024, while national debt has reached a record €3.228 trillion, or 112% of GDP — well above the EU’s 60% threshold.
Rising Borrowing Costs
The downgrade had an immediate impact on France’s government bonds. Yields on 10-year French debt surged past 3.05% during early trading on Monday, making it more expensive for the country to finance its obligations. The spread between French 10-year bonds and Germany’s benchmark bonds widened to over 80 basis points, reflecting heightened investor caution.
Notably, France’s borrowing costs now exceed those of traditionally higher-risk nations such as Portugal, Slovenia, and Croatia, underlining growing market concerns.
Political Turmoil Adds Pressure
France’s political uncertainty is compounding the economic challenges. On Friday, President Emmanuel Macron appointed François Bayrou as the country’s fourth prime minister in a year, following the resignation of Michel Barnier. Barnier’s austerity budget failed to secure parliamentary support, leading to a no-confidence vote that toppled his government.
The incoming administration faces the urgent task of passing a valid budget for 2025 and addressing France’s ballooning debt and deficit. Moody’s highlighted the critical need for decisive fiscal policies, warning that there is “a very low probability that the next government will sustainably reduce the size of fiscal deficits beyond next year.”
Government Response
France’s Economy Minister Antoine Armand acknowledged Moody’s decision in a statement on X (formerly Twitter), attributing it to recent parliamentary instability. Armand expressed confidence in Prime Minister Bayrou’s ability to restore fiscal discipline, stating that the government remains committed to reducing the deficit.
Outlook
With borrowing costs rising and investor confidence shaken, France faces mounting pressure to stabilize its finances. Moody’s projects that the country’s fiscal outlook will remain weaker than expected for at least three more years.
The challenges for the Bayrou administration are clear: rebuilding market trust while navigating political turbulence and implementing overdue economic reforms. However, the path to fiscal stability appears fraught with hurdles, leaving France vulnerable to further market volatility.
Business
Garmin Faces Customer Backlash Over Widespread Smartwatch Malfunction
Global smartwatch maker Garmin is facing growing frustration from customers after widespread reports of device malfunctions, leaving many unable to use their high-end watches.
Users worldwide have complained that their devices either freeze on the start-up screen or display a blue triangle upon powering on. Among the affected models are the Fenix 8, a premium smartwatch retailing for nearly £1,000 ($1,200), as well as several other popular Garmin products.
Garmin has acknowledged the issue but has yet to provide a definitive fix. The company suggested that users attempt a reset or connect their devices to the Garmin app, but admitted that a full factory reset may be necessary in some cases.
However, reports suggest that even this measure has not resolved the problem for all users. “Their instructions don’t fix it, and Garmin is silent,” one frustrated customer wrote on X (formerly Twitter).
Affected Devices
According to Garmin’s website, the issue impacts several of its leading product lines, including:
- Approach Watch
- Edge Cycling Computers
- Epix Watch
- Fenix Watch
- Forerunner Watch
- Instinct Series Watch
- Vivoactive 4 and 5
- Venu 3 and 3S
The company has yet to confirm the root cause of the issue, but some industry experts speculate that a faulty software update may be preventing devices from properly syncing with GPS signals.
Customer Frustration Grows
As the outage drags on, social media has been flooded with complaints, with many criticizing Garmin for its lack of transparency and slow response.
“You should really prioritize your current customers and the ongoing issue with many watches,” one user posted. Another called the company’s silence “unbelievable,” given the high price tag of Garmin’s products.
Even public figures have weighed in, including Absolute Radio DJ Leona Graham, who shared her own experience with the malfunctioning watch alongside footage of the dreaded blue triangle screen.
Garmin has yet to issue a timeline for a permanent fix, saying only that it will “provide more information when available.”
For now, frustrated users are left waiting – and watching – for answers.
Business
ECB Expected to Cut Interest Rates as Inflation Nears Target
The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, as inflation trends toward its 2% target and economic growth remains sluggish. The deposit facility rate is expected to decline from 3% to 2.75%, marking its lowest level since February 2023.
While the prevailing economic indicators justify easing monetary policy, potential US trade tariffs could introduce uncertainty for ECB policymakers, adding complexity to the rate-cutting trajectory.
Analysts Predict Further Rate Cuts in 2025
Market analysts foresee additional rate cuts in the coming year. Goldman Sachs economist Sven Jari Stehn expects another 25 basis point reduction at the ECB’s March meeting, with further cuts likely as economic conditions evolve.
“We maintain our forecast for sequential cuts to 1.75% in July, given our projection of subdued growth,” Stehn said. ING analyst Francesco Pesole echoed this sentiment, stating that a “broadly dovish message” from the ECB could pave the way for further rate reductions in the eurozone.
Bank of America predicts rate cuts in both January and March, with a potential terminal rate of 1.5% or lower, increasing the monetary policy divergence with the US Federal Reserve. However, some analysts caution that delays beyond March may occur due to core inflation volatility.
ECB policymakers speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos acknowledged that inflation risks are diverging between the US and the eurozone, with European inflation appearing less severe. None of the ECB speakers highlighted inflation risks arising from recent energy price movements.
Projections for euro area economic growth remain modest, with Bank of America forecasting fourth-quarter growth at 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. Spain is expected to lead (0.5%), followed by Italy (0.2%), while France (-0.1%) and Germany (0.0%) continue to struggle.
Trade Tariffs Introduce New Risks
ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to face questions during Thursday’s press conference regarding the potential impact of US tariffs on the European economy.
Reports indicate that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is preparing a 2.5% universal tariff, with gradual monthly increases up to 20%. President Donald Trump has signaled support for more aggressive tariffs on key goods, including steel, copper, and semiconductor chips.
News of these trade measures has already impacted currency markets. After briefly strengthening above 1.05 against the dollar, the euro fell to 1.0430 as tariff concerns emerged. “Volatility is likely to continue, and in the short term, the tariff noise is a key driver,” noted BBVA in a Tuesday report.
Tariffs and ECB Policy Outlook
Higher US tariffs on European imports could weigh on eurozone growth, particularly in sectors like machinery and pharmaceuticals, which rely on US exports. In theory, this could reinforce the case for lower interest rates.
However, the inflationary impact of tariffs remains uncertain. If the EU retaliates against US products, or if a weaker euro raises import costs, inflation could rise instead. Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau downplayed these risks, stating at Davos that US tariffs may drive inflation in the US but would have limited impact on the eurozone.
ABN Amro economist Bill Diviney suggested that tariffs may ultimately have a deflationary effect in Europe due to weakened global trade and lower commodity prices. “This is an important factor behind our view that the ECB policy rate will eventually be reduced to 1%,” he said.
As the ECB prepares to announce its decision, investors and policymakers will closely monitor economic data and geopolitical developments to gauge the long-term implications for monetary policy.
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