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The yield on France’s 10-year government bonds surpassed 3% on Monday, as investors reacted to Moody’s unexpected downgrade of the nation’s credit rating. The move has intensified scrutiny on France’s public finances, with borrowing costs climbing and the spread between French and German bonds widening sharply.

Moody’s Downgrade Triggers Concerns

Moody’s downgraded France’s long-term issuer rating from Aa2 to Aa3 over the weekend, citing concerns about the country’s fiscal sustainability and political challenges. The agency’s outlook for France was revised from negative to stable, aligning the nation’s rating with those issued by the other major credit agencies.

In its statement, Moody’s warned that “political fragmentation is more likely to impede meaningful fiscal consolidation,” adding that public finances are expected to remain under pressure for several years. France’s deficit is projected to exceed 6% of GDP in 2024, while national debt has reached a record €3.228 trillion, or 112% of GDP — well above the EU’s 60% threshold.

Rising Borrowing Costs

The downgrade had an immediate impact on France’s government bonds. Yields on 10-year French debt surged past 3.05% during early trading on Monday, making it more expensive for the country to finance its obligations. The spread between French 10-year bonds and Germany’s benchmark bonds widened to over 80 basis points, reflecting heightened investor caution.

Notably, France’s borrowing costs now exceed those of traditionally higher-risk nations such as Portugal, Slovenia, and Croatia, underlining growing market concerns.

Political Turmoil Adds Pressure

France’s political uncertainty is compounding the economic challenges. On Friday, President Emmanuel Macron appointed François Bayrou as the country’s fourth prime minister in a year, following the resignation of Michel Barnier. Barnier’s austerity budget failed to secure parliamentary support, leading to a no-confidence vote that toppled his government.

The incoming administration faces the urgent task of passing a valid budget for 2025 and addressing France’s ballooning debt and deficit. Moody’s highlighted the critical need for decisive fiscal policies, warning that there is “a very low probability that the next government will sustainably reduce the size of fiscal deficits beyond next year.”

Government Response

France’s Economy Minister Antoine Armand acknowledged Moody’s decision in a statement on X (formerly Twitter), attributing it to recent parliamentary instability. Armand expressed confidence in Prime Minister Bayrou’s ability to restore fiscal discipline, stating that the government remains committed to reducing the deficit.

Outlook

With borrowing costs rising and investor confidence shaken, France faces mounting pressure to stabilize its finances. Moody’s projects that the country’s fiscal outlook will remain weaker than expected for at least three more years.

The challenges for the Bayrou administration are clear: rebuilding market trust while navigating political turbulence and implementing overdue economic reforms. However, the path to fiscal stability appears fraught with hurdles, leaving France vulnerable to further market volatility.

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Garmin Faces Customer Backlash Over Widespread Smartwatch Malfunction

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Global smartwatch maker Garmin is facing growing frustration from customers after widespread reports of device malfunctions, leaving many unable to use their high-end watches.

Users worldwide have complained that their devices either freeze on the start-up screen or display a blue triangle upon powering on. Among the affected models are the Fenix 8, a premium smartwatch retailing for nearly £1,000 ($1,200), as well as several other popular Garmin products.

Garmin has acknowledged the issue but has yet to provide a definitive fix. The company suggested that users attempt a reset or connect their devices to the Garmin app, but admitted that a full factory reset may be necessary in some cases.

However, reports suggest that even this measure has not resolved the problem for all users. “Their instructions don’t fix it, and Garmin is silent,” one frustrated customer wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

Affected Devices

According to Garmin’s website, the issue impacts several of its leading product lines, including:

  • Approach Watch
  • Edge Cycling Computers
  • Epix Watch
  • Fenix Watch
  • Forerunner Watch
  • Instinct Series Watch
  • Vivoactive 4 and 5
  • Venu 3 and 3S

The company has yet to confirm the root cause of the issue, but some industry experts speculate that a faulty software update may be preventing devices from properly syncing with GPS signals.

Customer Frustration Grows

As the outage drags on, social media has been flooded with complaints, with many criticizing Garmin for its lack of transparency and slow response.

“You should really prioritize your current customers and the ongoing issue with many watches,” one user posted. Another called the company’s silence “unbelievable,” given the high price tag of Garmin’s products.

Even public figures have weighed in, including Absolute Radio DJ Leona Graham, who shared her own experience with the malfunctioning watch alongside footage of the dreaded blue triangle screen.

Garmin has yet to issue a timeline for a permanent fix, saying only that it will “provide more information when available.”

For now, frustrated users are left waiting – and watching – for answers.

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ECB Expected to Cut Interest Rates as Inflation Nears Target

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The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, as inflation trends toward its 2% target and economic growth remains sluggish. The deposit facility rate is expected to decline from 3% to 2.75%, marking its lowest level since February 2023.

While the prevailing economic indicators justify easing monetary policy, potential US trade tariffs could introduce uncertainty for ECB policymakers, adding complexity to the rate-cutting trajectory.

Analysts Predict Further Rate Cuts in 2025

Market analysts foresee additional rate cuts in the coming year. Goldman Sachs economist Sven Jari Stehn expects another 25 basis point reduction at the ECB’s March meeting, with further cuts likely as economic conditions evolve.

“We maintain our forecast for sequential cuts to 1.75% in July, given our projection of subdued growth,” Stehn said. ING analyst Francesco Pesole echoed this sentiment, stating that a “broadly dovish message” from the ECB could pave the way for further rate reductions in the eurozone.

Bank of America predicts rate cuts in both January and March, with a potential terminal rate of 1.5% or lower, increasing the monetary policy divergence with the US Federal Reserve. However, some analysts caution that delays beyond March may occur due to core inflation volatility.

ECB policymakers speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos acknowledged that inflation risks are diverging between the US and the eurozone, with European inflation appearing less severe. None of the ECB speakers highlighted inflation risks arising from recent energy price movements.

Projections for euro area economic growth remain modest, with Bank of America forecasting fourth-quarter growth at 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. Spain is expected to lead (0.5%), followed by Italy (0.2%), while France (-0.1%) and Germany (0.0%) continue to struggle.

Trade Tariffs Introduce New Risks

ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to face questions during Thursday’s press conference regarding the potential impact of US tariffs on the European economy.

Reports indicate that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is preparing a 2.5% universal tariff, with gradual monthly increases up to 20%. President Donald Trump has signaled support for more aggressive tariffs on key goods, including steel, copper, and semiconductor chips.

News of these trade measures has already impacted currency markets. After briefly strengthening above 1.05 against the dollar, the euro fell to 1.0430 as tariff concerns emerged. “Volatility is likely to continue, and in the short term, the tariff noise is a key driver,” noted BBVA in a Tuesday report.

Tariffs and ECB Policy Outlook

Higher US tariffs on European imports could weigh on eurozone growth, particularly in sectors like machinery and pharmaceuticals, which rely on US exports. In theory, this could reinforce the case for lower interest rates.

However, the inflationary impact of tariffs remains uncertain. If the EU retaliates against US products, or if a weaker euro raises import costs, inflation could rise instead. Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau downplayed these risks, stating at Davos that US tariffs may drive inflation in the US but would have limited impact on the eurozone.

ABN Amro economist Bill Diviney suggested that tariffs may ultimately have a deflationary effect in Europe due to weakened global trade and lower commodity prices. “This is an important factor behind our view that the ECB policy rate will eventually be reduced to 1%,” he said.

As the ECB prepares to announce its decision, investors and policymakers will closely monitor economic data and geopolitical developments to gauge the long-term implications for monetary policy.

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Boeing Faces $11.8 Billion Loss in 2024 Amid Strikes, Safety Issues, and Quality Control Failures

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Boeing reported a staggering $11.8 billion loss for 2024, marking its worst financial result since 2020 when the aviation industry was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. The aerospace giant struggled with a combination of safety crises, quality control failures, and a damaging strike, which severely impacted its operations.

In the final quarter of the year, Boeing faced a $3.8 billion loss, largely driven by a seven-week strike by 33,000 workers, primarily based in the Seattle area. This strike halted production at key factories, including those responsible for the 737 Max, 777, and 767 freighter models. The strike, which began in September, reflected worker dissatisfaction over pay and retirement benefits. Although the dispute was resolved by early November, the production stoppage dealt a major blow to Boeing’s finances.

Boeing’s troubles were compounded by ongoing quality control and safety issues. In January 2024, a serious incident occurred when a door panel detached from a newly delivered 737 Max shortly after takeoff, exposing the plane to potential danger. Investigations revealed that the panel had not been properly secured, a mistake that highlighted significant quality control lapses at both Boeing and its key supplier, Spirit Aerosystems. This incident raised fresh concerns about Boeing’s commitment to safety, a topic that had already been in the spotlight following two fatal crashes involving another 737 model, the Max 8, in 2018 and 2019.

These challenges forced Boeing to halt production temporarily and prompted regulators to demand substantial changes in its safety and quality procedures. In response, Boeing appointed Kelly Ortberg as CEO in August 2024, hoping that his engineering background would bring stability and restore confidence in the company.

Despite efforts to stabilize operations, Boeing faced additional setbacks. The company was forced to delay the introduction of the 777X, a new version of its long-haul aircraft, which had already been delayed for years. Originally expected to enter service in 2025, the aircraft will now not carry passengers until 2026.

Boeing’s commercial aircraft deliveries were also far behind its main competitor, Airbus, which delivered 766 planes in 2024. Boeing only managed to deliver 348 commercial aircraft during the year.

While the company’s defense division faced less public scrutiny, it was equally affected, reporting a loss of over $5 billion due to rising costs on military contracts.

Despite these setbacks, Ortberg remained optimistic, stating, “We made progress on key areas to stabilize our operations during the quarter and continued to strengthen important aspects of our safety and quality plan.” He emphasized that the company was committed to making the necessary changes to recover and rebuild trust with its stakeholders.

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