Inflation in the eurozone rose to 2.4% year-on-year in December, up from 2.2% in November, according to preliminary data from Eurostat. While the increase matched economists’ forecasts, it highlighted ongoing inflationary pressures in the region, complicating efforts by the European Central Bank (ECB) to meet its 2% target.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.4%, reversing the 0.3% decline seen in November. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, remained steady at 2.7%, in line with expectations. Despite the stable core inflation, the persistent inflationary challenges are expected to keep the ECB focused on further action.
Among the key contributors to inflation, services remained the leading category, with an annual rate of 4%, slightly up from 3.9% in November. Food, alcohol, and tobacco prices stayed steady at 2.7%, while non-energy industrial goods saw a slight decrease in inflation, easing to 0.5% from 0.6%. Energy prices rebounded significantly, rising 0.1% year-on-year after a -2% drop in November, reflecting higher fuel costs in some eurozone countries.
Kyle Chapman, an analyst at Ballinger Group, suggested that the inflation rise was unlikely to alter the ECB’s course. “This figure does close to nothing in terms of altering the path for the ECB,” Chapman said. He noted that Frankfurt had been anticipating a temporary rise in inflation and is likely to overlook it for now.
Regional Variations in Inflation
Inflation rates varied widely across eurozone countries. Croatia led with the highest annual rate at 4.5%, followed by Belgium at 4.4%. Other significant readings included Germany at 2.8%, Greece at 2.9%, and Spain at 2.8%. In Belgium and Germany, monthly inflation rose by 0.7%, the second-highest across member states.
Ireland recorded the lowest annual inflation rate at 1%, but saw a notable monthly spike of 0.9%. In contrast, Italy, with one of the lowest annual rates at 1.4%, had only a 0.1% monthly rise. France’s inflation increased to 1.8%, the highest since August, while Spain saw a 2.8% inflation rate, the highest since July 2024.
Market Reactions
Despite the inflation data aligning with expectations, financial markets reacted mildly. Shorter-dated eurozone bond yields, which had spiked following Germany’s surprise inflation report on Monday, edged lower. The two-year Schatz yield fell 3 basis points to 2.18%, while the benchmark 10-year Bund yield held steady at 2.45%.
The euro continued its upward trend, rising 0.4% to $1.0430, as market expectations remain focused on future ECB rate cuts. Traders are anticipating a 25 basis-point cut at the ECB’s meeting on January 30, with over 100 basis points of cumulative cuts expected throughout 2025.
European equity indices traded slightly higher, with the Euro STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 up 0.2%. Germany’s DAX also gained 0.2%, while France’s CAC 40 outperformed, rising 0.4%. Italy’s FTSE MIB lagged, slipping 0.1%.
Sector-wise, luxury and consumer goods stocks outperformed, with Adidas rising 2.2%, while banks underperformed, with the Euro STOXX Banks Index down 1.1%. Notable declines were seen in Deutsche Bank, which fell 1.6%, and Ireland’s AIB Group, which dropped 1.8%.
