Crude Oil Prices Dip Amid Weak Chinese Trade Data and Demand Concerns
Crude oil prices edged lower on Tuesday, retreating from the previous day’s gains, as weaker-than-expected trade data from China added to concerns about global energy demand.
By 6 a.m. CET, Brent futures had dropped 0.37% to $71.90 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures slid 0.45% to $68.06 per barrel. The decline underscores persistent worries over sluggish demand in traditional energy markets, driven by a global economic slowdown, particularly in China.
China’s November trade data painted a sobering picture. Exports rose by 6.7% year-on-year, while imports fell 3.9%, both figures falling short of economists’ expectations of 8.7% growth in exports and a 0.9% increase in imports. The data came on the heels of weaker-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) figures, signaling continued soft domestic demand.
China’s Critical Role in Global Oil Markets
Despite the disappointing data, China remains a key player in global crude markets. The world’s largest oil importer averaged 10.94 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first ten months of 2023, marking a 3.7% decline compared to the same period last year. However, November saw a four-month high in imports at 11.62 million bpd, offering a glimmer of optimism.
On Monday, oil prices rallied by over 1% after China’s government pledged to implement more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies in 2025 to bolster its economy. The announcement, made during a meeting of the CPC Central Committee, raised hopes of increased fiscal spending, lower interest rates, and expanded government borrowing to stimulate growth.
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. A report by S&P Global projected a 1.7% increase in China’s oil demand, reaching 17.59 million bpd by 2025. However, Commodity Insights warned that rising production from the United States, Canada, and OPEC+ could offset demand-driven price gains.
Supply Challenges and OPEC+ Strategy
OPEC+, which supplies nearly half of the world’s oil, recently postponed its plans to reverse production cuts amid faltering global demand. The group delayed increasing output by three months and pushed the timeline for full production recovery to the end of 2026.
“Ultimately, the market’s focus will remain on demand-side factors. China’s economic performance will be the key driver for future oil demand,” said Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at Capital.com.
Geopolitical Tensions Provide Limited Support
Geopolitical developments, including heightened tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have added volatility to oil markets. Over the weekend, Syrian rebels ousted President Bashar al-Assad, while military conflicts between Iran and Israel continue to escalate.
Despite these tensions, the crude market has struggled to sustain significant gains, with analysts pointing to the need for sustained positive signals from China to drive further price recovery.
Business
Garmin Faces Customer Backlash Over Widespread Smartwatch Malfunction
Global smartwatch maker Garmin is facing growing frustration from customers after widespread reports of device malfunctions, leaving many unable to use their high-end watches.
Users worldwide have complained that their devices either freeze on the start-up screen or display a blue triangle upon powering on. Among the affected models are the Fenix 8, a premium smartwatch retailing for nearly £1,000 ($1,200), as well as several other popular Garmin products.
Garmin has acknowledged the issue but has yet to provide a definitive fix. The company suggested that users attempt a reset or connect their devices to the Garmin app, but admitted that a full factory reset may be necessary in some cases.
However, reports suggest that even this measure has not resolved the problem for all users. “Their instructions don’t fix it, and Garmin is silent,” one frustrated customer wrote on X (formerly Twitter).
Affected Devices
According to Garmin’s website, the issue impacts several of its leading product lines, including:
- Approach Watch
- Edge Cycling Computers
- Epix Watch
- Fenix Watch
- Forerunner Watch
- Instinct Series Watch
- Vivoactive 4 and 5
- Venu 3 and 3S
The company has yet to confirm the root cause of the issue, but some industry experts speculate that a faulty software update may be preventing devices from properly syncing with GPS signals.
Customer Frustration Grows
As the outage drags on, social media has been flooded with complaints, with many criticizing Garmin for its lack of transparency and slow response.
“You should really prioritize your current customers and the ongoing issue with many watches,” one user posted. Another called the company’s silence “unbelievable,” given the high price tag of Garmin’s products.
Even public figures have weighed in, including Absolute Radio DJ Leona Graham, who shared her own experience with the malfunctioning watch alongside footage of the dreaded blue triangle screen.
Garmin has yet to issue a timeline for a permanent fix, saying only that it will “provide more information when available.”
For now, frustrated users are left waiting – and watching – for answers.
Business
ECB Expected to Cut Interest Rates as Inflation Nears Target
The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, as inflation trends toward its 2% target and economic growth remains sluggish. The deposit facility rate is expected to decline from 3% to 2.75%, marking its lowest level since February 2023.
While the prevailing economic indicators justify easing monetary policy, potential US trade tariffs could introduce uncertainty for ECB policymakers, adding complexity to the rate-cutting trajectory.
Analysts Predict Further Rate Cuts in 2025
Market analysts foresee additional rate cuts in the coming year. Goldman Sachs economist Sven Jari Stehn expects another 25 basis point reduction at the ECB’s March meeting, with further cuts likely as economic conditions evolve.
“We maintain our forecast for sequential cuts to 1.75% in July, given our projection of subdued growth,” Stehn said. ING analyst Francesco Pesole echoed this sentiment, stating that a “broadly dovish message” from the ECB could pave the way for further rate reductions in the eurozone.
Bank of America predicts rate cuts in both January and March, with a potential terminal rate of 1.5% or lower, increasing the monetary policy divergence with the US Federal Reserve. However, some analysts caution that delays beyond March may occur due to core inflation volatility.
ECB policymakers speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos acknowledged that inflation risks are diverging between the US and the eurozone, with European inflation appearing less severe. None of the ECB speakers highlighted inflation risks arising from recent energy price movements.
Projections for euro area economic growth remain modest, with Bank of America forecasting fourth-quarter growth at 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. Spain is expected to lead (0.5%), followed by Italy (0.2%), while France (-0.1%) and Germany (0.0%) continue to struggle.
Trade Tariffs Introduce New Risks
ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to face questions during Thursday’s press conference regarding the potential impact of US tariffs on the European economy.
Reports indicate that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is preparing a 2.5% universal tariff, with gradual monthly increases up to 20%. President Donald Trump has signaled support for more aggressive tariffs on key goods, including steel, copper, and semiconductor chips.
News of these trade measures has already impacted currency markets. After briefly strengthening above 1.05 against the dollar, the euro fell to 1.0430 as tariff concerns emerged. “Volatility is likely to continue, and in the short term, the tariff noise is a key driver,” noted BBVA in a Tuesday report.
Tariffs and ECB Policy Outlook
Higher US tariffs on European imports could weigh on eurozone growth, particularly in sectors like machinery and pharmaceuticals, which rely on US exports. In theory, this could reinforce the case for lower interest rates.
However, the inflationary impact of tariffs remains uncertain. If the EU retaliates against US products, or if a weaker euro raises import costs, inflation could rise instead. Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau downplayed these risks, stating at Davos that US tariffs may drive inflation in the US but would have limited impact on the eurozone.
ABN Amro economist Bill Diviney suggested that tariffs may ultimately have a deflationary effect in Europe due to weakened global trade and lower commodity prices. “This is an important factor behind our view that the ECB policy rate will eventually be reduced to 1%,” he said.
As the ECB prepares to announce its decision, investors and policymakers will closely monitor economic data and geopolitical developments to gauge the long-term implications for monetary policy.
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