Rising energy and fertiliser prices could continue pushing up food costs around the world and make healthy diets less affordable, threatening fragile progress in the fight against hunger, the United Nations has warned.
The warning came as a new UN food security report said global hunger had eased slightly in recent years but remained a major concern. More than 500 million people could still be living with chronic hunger by 2030, with Africa expected to carry the largest share of the burden.
Alvaro Lario, president of the International Fund for Agricultural Development, said conflicts and disruptions to shipping and energy supplies could worsen the situation. He estimated that prolonged shocks linked to geopolitical tensions could leave an additional 9 million to 18 million people facing hunger.
“We are in a current era where we have the highest number of conflicts and are still increasing,” Lario said. He added that conflict was closely linked to rising hunger, displacement and refugee movements.
The war involving Iran and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have contributed to higher energy and fertiliser prices, according to Lario. Disruptions to supplies and shipping can raise costs throughout the food system, particularly for small-scale farmers who depend on diesel to pump water, harvest crops and transport produce.
The cost of a healthy diet has already risen significantly. The UN report said the average global cost reached 4.28 purchasing power parity dollars per person per day, up from 3.44 in 2021. Latin America and the Caribbean recorded the highest average cost at 4.91 dollars.
Fruit, vegetables and animal-based foods account for much of the cost of a healthy diet, while processing, logistics and wholesale activities make up about 40 per cent of the total. These parts of the food chain are especially vulnerable to supply disruptions.
The report called for greater investment in infrastructure, irrigation, research, cold storage and more efficient food distribution. Changes to subsidies, regulations and trade systems could also help reduce costs.
FAO Director-General QU Dongyu said recent crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, had shown the need for stronger and more resilient food systems.
Climate change is adding to the pressure. Floods, prolonged droughts and extreme heat are increasingly damaging crops and rural livelihoods. Lario said governments should invest in adaptation before disasters strike instead of relying mainly on emergency assistance.
Africa is emerging as the most serious food security challenge. The continent has overtaken Asia as the region with the largest number of hungry people, and nearly 60 per cent of the world’s chronically undernourished population could live there by 2030.
African countries import almost $100 billion worth of food each year, highlighting the need for stronger local production, storage and regional trade networks, Lario said.
Without greater investment and political commitment, conflict, climate shocks and rising energy costs could reverse recent progress against hunger.
