Bank of England’s Rate Cut May Stall Amid Inflation Concerns Following Budget
The Bank of England’s latest decision to cut interest rates may mark the last reduction for a while, as new forecasts suggest inflation could climb following recent Budget measures. The Bank cut its interest rate from 5% to 4.75%, a widely anticipated move, but it signaled caution over future cuts due to expected inflationary pressures from the Budget’s spending increases.
Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that while rates are set to decline gradually, any additional cuts would be approached conservatively. “We must be careful not to reduce rates too quickly or by too much,” Bailey said, hinting that the Bank is likely to keep rates steady during its December meeting. Investors, in turn, now anticipate no further reductions this year.
Despite falling below the Bank’s 2% target in September, inflation is expected to tick up in the near term, partly driven by higher gas and electricity prices last month. The Bank previously forecast inflation would stabilize at 2% by 2026, but this target has now been pushed back to 2027.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 8-1 in favor of the recent rate cut, with member Catherine Mann dissenting. Mann argued that the Budget’s provisions, such as VAT on private school fees and a national bus fare cap, are likely to spur higher inflation and suggested caution in lowering rates further.
Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, noted that the new Budget introduces additional borrowing, a higher national living wage, and employer National Insurance contribution increases, all of which could drive inflation. “The Bank of England has delivered one more cut, but we don’t expect any further reductions soon. With these budgetary changes, the Bank remains wary of pushing rates down too much,” Coles said.
The slower pace of rate reductions means mixed news for consumers. Savers could see slightly higher returns, but mortgage borrowers may face continued challenges, as average mortgage rates remain high. Moneyfacts, a financial data company, reported that the current average two-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.4%, while a five-year fixed rate is 5.11%.
Over a million mortgage borrowers on tracker or variable-rate deals will see a decrease in their payments due to the recent cut. However, mortgage rates are still high compared to much of the past decade, putting added pressure on household budgets.
The rate cut also impacts savers, as returns on accounts may drop. Current easy-access accounts are averaging around 3% interest annually, and some consumers are concerned about declining returns. Claire Hopwood and Gavin Laking, who are saving for a house purchase, said recent cuts have already affected their savings. “We enjoyed a 4.5% rate, but now it’s dropped to 3.9%,” Laking noted.
Last week’s Budget included £28 billion in additional annual borrowing and £40 billion in tax-raising measures, with the largest being a rise in employer National Insurance contributions. Economists say that companies might pass these costs on to consumers, potentially slowing wage growth.
The Bank also adjusted its growth forecast for 2025 and projected that unemployment could fall from 4.7% to 4.1%, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook on the economic impact of the Budget’s increased spending. Chancellor Rachel Reeves welcomed the rate cut, acknowledging it as a relief for families but stressing the significant challenges many still face following previous fiscal policies.
Business
Disparities in Material Welfare Across Europe Highlighted by Key Indicator
A key indicator of household material welfare, Actual Individual Consumption (AIC) per capita, reveals significant variations across Europe. Expressed in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS), AIC measures all goods and services used by households, whether purchased directly or provided by the government or nonprofit organizations. As a result, it offers valuable insight into living standards across the continent.
In 2023, Luxembourg ranked at the top of the list, with AIC per capita 36% above the EU average, at 136% of the EU’s benchmark. In contrast, Bulgaria and Hungary recorded some of the lowest material welfare levels in the European Union, with AIC per capita at just 70% of the EU average. The overall EU average, which encompasses 27 member states, is set at 100.
Nine EU countries recorded AIC levels above the EU average. In addition to Luxembourg, these countries include Germany (119%), the Netherlands (119%), Austria (114%), Belgium (113%), Denmark (108%), France (106%), Sweden (106%), and Finland (105%). Among the EU’s largest economies, Germany and the Netherlands performed the best, followed by France, where welfare was 6% above the EU average. Meanwhile, Italy’s material welfare matched the EU average, and Spain, at 91%, ranked the lowest among the “Big Four.”
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Central and Eastern European countries, along with several EU candidate nations, generally reported lower AIC per capita. Latvia, Estonia, Croatia, and Slovakia follow Hungary and Bulgaria in showing more than 20% lower material welfare than the EU average.
Outside the EU, the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries reported higher material welfare levels than the EU. Norway and Switzerland exceeded the EU average, with Norway at 24% above and Switzerland 16% higher. In contrast, all six EU candidate countries fell below the EU average, with Turkey, at 84%, performing better than nine EU countries, including Poland (83%) and Greece (80%).
While Nordic and Western European nations consistently show higher AIC per capita, reflecting better material welfare, Central and Eastern Europe, along with EU candidate countries, exhibit lower AIC figures. This disparity highlights notable regional differences in living standards across Europe.
Over the past three years, several countries experienced shifts in material welfare. Denmark saw the most significant decline, dropping from 120% of the EU average in 2020 to 108% in 2023. Meanwhile, Ireland, Bulgaria, and Spain reported significant increases in AIC per capita, with Turkey recording the most substantial rise among EU candidates, moving from 64% to 84%.
Eurostat explains that AIC is a comprehensive measure of household material well-being, accounting for all household expenditures, including those for food, clothing, housing, and healthcare. This indicator offers a more equitable way to compare living standards across different regions and countries, adjusting for variations in price levels.
Business
Biden Blocks $14.9 Billion US Steel Takeover by Nippon Steel, Sparking Controversy
Business
Apple Agrees to $95 Million Settlement Over Allegations of Eavesdropping Through Siri
Apple has agreed to pay $95 million to settle a lawsuit accusing the tech giant of secretly listening to users through its virtual assistant, Siri. The settlement, which was reached in a preliminary agreement, comes after claims that Apple eavesdropped on users’ conversations and shared voice recordings with advertisers.
The lawsuit alleges that Siri was activated without users’ consent, even when the wake phrase “Hey, Siri” was not used. The claimants also argue that Apple’s failure to delete these recordings led to them being shared with advertisers, who used the data to target users with personalized ads.
Although Apple has not admitted to any wrongdoing, the company has stated in court filings that it denies the allegations that it recorded or disclosed conversations without consent. Additionally, Apple claims it permanently deleted individual Siri audio recordings collected prior to October 2019.
The lead plaintiff in the case, Fumiko Lopez, alleges that both she and her daughter were recorded without their permission. They claim that after discussing products like Air Jordans, they began seeing targeted ads for those products.
The lawsuit is classified as a class action, meaning it is brought forward by a small group of individuals on behalf of a larger group of affected users. In this case, eligible US-based claimants could receive up to $20 per Siri-enabled device they owned between 2014 and 2019. Lawyers representing the claimants are expected to receive 30% of the settlement fee, amounting to nearly $30 million.
Apple’s decision to settle, despite denying any liability, allows the company to avoid the risks of a lengthy trial that could result in a higher payout. The settlement amount, while substantial, is less than the potential cost of a trial verdict, especially as Apple has continued to see strong financial performance. The company reported $94.9 billion in revenue for the three months ending September 2024.
This settlement adds to a growing list of class action lawsuits Apple has faced in recent years. In January 2024, Apple began paying out in a $500 million lawsuit over allegations of deliberately slowing down older iPhones. Earlier in March, it agreed to pay $490 million in a class action over its App Store practices in the UK. The company is also facing a class action from the consumer group Which?, accusing Apple of overcharging customers for its iCloud service.
The same law firm representing the claimants in the Siri case is also suing Google for similar allegations of eavesdropping through Google devices, with that case ongoing in the same California court.
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