Bank of England’s Rate Cut May Stall Amid Inflation Concerns Following Budget

Published

2 months ago

November 7, 2024

RTX

The Bank of England’s latest decision to cut interest rates may mark the last reduction for a while, as new forecasts suggest inflation could climb following recent Budget measures. The Bank cut its interest rate from 5% to 4.75%, a widely anticipated move, but it signaled caution over future cuts due to expected inflationary pressures from the Budget’s spending increases.

Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that while rates are set to decline gradually, any additional cuts would be approached conservatively. “We must be careful not to reduce rates too quickly or by too much,” Bailey said, hinting that the Bank is likely to keep rates steady during its December meeting. Investors, in turn, now anticipate no further reductions this year.

Despite falling below the Bank’s 2% target in September, inflation is expected to tick up in the near term, partly driven by higher gas and electricity prices last month. The Bank previously forecast inflation would stabilize at 2% by 2026, but this target has now been pushed back to 2027.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 8-1 in favor of the recent rate cut, with member Catherine Mann dissenting. Mann argued that the Budget’s provisions, such as VAT on private school fees and a national bus fare cap, are likely to spur higher inflation and suggested caution in lowering rates further.

Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, noted that the new Budget introduces additional borrowing, a higher national living wage, and employer National Insurance contribution increases, all of which could drive inflation. “The Bank of England has delivered one more cut, but we don’t expect any further reductions soon. With these budgetary changes, the Bank remains wary of pushing rates down too much,” Coles said.

The slower pace of rate reductions means mixed news for consumers. Savers could see slightly higher returns, but mortgage borrowers may face continued challenges, as average mortgage rates remain high. Moneyfacts, a financial data company, reported that the current average two-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.4%, while a five-year fixed rate is 5.11%.

Over a million mortgage borrowers on tracker or variable-rate deals will see a decrease in their payments due to the recent cut. However, mortgage rates are still high compared to much of the past decade, putting added pressure on household budgets.

The rate cut also impacts savers, as returns on accounts may drop. Current easy-access accounts are averaging around 3% interest annually, and some consumers are concerned about declining returns. Claire Hopwood and Gavin Laking, who are saving for a house purchase, said recent cuts have already affected their savings. “We enjoyed a 4.5% rate, but now it’s dropped to 3.9%,” Laking noted.

Last week’s Budget included £28 billion in additional annual borrowing and £40 billion in tax-raising measures, with the largest being a rise in employer National Insurance contributions. Economists say that companies might pass these costs on to consumers, potentially slowing wage growth.

The Bank also adjusted its growth forecast for 2025 and projected that unemployment could fall from 4.7% to 4.1%, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook on the economic impact of the Budget’s increased spending. Chancellor Rachel Reeves welcomed the rate cut, acknowledging it as a relief for families but stressing the significant challenges many still face following previous fiscal policies.

Business

Apple Agrees to $95 Million Settlement Over Allegations of Eavesdropping Through Siri

Published

17 hours ago

January 3, 2025

RTX

Apple has agreed to pay $95 million to settle a lawsuit accusing the tech giant of secretly listening to users through its virtual assistant, Siri. The settlement, which was reached in a preliminary agreement, comes after claims that Apple eavesdropped on users’ conversations and shared voice recordings with advertisers.

The lawsuit alleges that Siri was activated without users’ consent, even when the wake phrase “Hey, Siri” was not used. The claimants also argue that Apple’s failure to delete these recordings led to them being shared with advertisers, who used the data to target users with personalized ads.

Although Apple has not admitted to any wrongdoing, the company has stated in court filings that it denies the allegations that it recorded or disclosed conversations without consent. Additionally, Apple claims it permanently deleted individual Siri audio recordings collected prior to October 2019.

The lead plaintiff in the case, Fumiko Lopez, alleges that both she and her daughter were recorded without their permission. They claim that after discussing products like Air Jordans, they began seeing targeted ads for those products.

The lawsuit is classified as a class action, meaning it is brought forward by a small group of individuals on behalf of a larger group of affected users. In this case, eligible US-based claimants could receive up to $20 per Siri-enabled device they owned between 2014 and 2019. Lawyers representing the claimants are expected to receive 30% of the settlement fee, amounting to nearly $30 million.

Apple’s decision to settle, despite denying any liability, allows the company to avoid the risks of a lengthy trial that could result in a higher payout. The settlement amount, while substantial, is less than the potential cost of a trial verdict, especially as Apple has continued to see strong financial performance. The company reported $94.9 billion in revenue for the three months ending September 2024.

This settlement adds to a growing list of class action lawsuits Apple has faced in recent years. In January 2024, Apple began paying out in a $500 million lawsuit over allegations of deliberately slowing down older iPhones. Earlier in March, it agreed to pay $490 million in a class action over its App Store practices in the UK. The company is also facing a class action from the consumer group Which?, accusing Apple of overcharging customers for its iCloud service.

The same law firm representing the claimants in the Siri case is also suing Google for similar allegations of eavesdropping through Google devices, with that case ongoing in the same California court.

Business

Euro Hits Two-Year Low Against US Dollar Amid Economic Concerns

Published

17 hours ago

January 3, 2025

RTX

The euro weakened further against the US dollar, reaching a fresh low not seen in over two years, as concerns grow over the Eurozone’s economic outlook, political instability, and monetary policy divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed).

On Thursday, the euro fell 0.9% against the US dollar, reaching 1.02, its lowest level since November 21, 2022. This decline continues the currency’s downward trajectory into the new year, fueled by fears over economic stagnation in the Eurozone and the policy rift between the ECB and the Fed.

The EUR/USD pair has plunged from a high of above 1.12 in September 2024, marking a 9% drop over the past three months. The US dollar has gained strength, aided by a more hawkish Federal Reserve and growing political uncertainty under the presidency of Donald Trump, whose policies have increased market volatility.

Analysts predict that the euro could soon reach parity with the dollar in 2025, a level last seen during the height of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This outlook is further clouded by escalating geopolitical risks and the economic impact of the war in Ukraine. On Wednesday, Ukraine halted Russian gas transit to Europe after a five-year contract expired, forcing European countries to turn to more expensive heating alternatives during a particularly harsh winter. Natural gas futures surged to a two-year high earlier this week before retreating to $3.66 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).

Adding to the Eurozone’s economic woes, weak manufacturing data has highlighted the region’s ongoing struggles. S&P Global’s December PMI showed continued contraction in both France and Germany’s manufacturing sectors. France recorded its sharpest decline in manufacturing activity since May 2020, while Germany saw its manufacturing output hit a three-month low. France’s central bank has also downgraded its economic growth forecast for 2025, now predicting just 0.9% growth, down from an earlier forecast of 1.2%.

Political instability is also adding to the uncertainty. Both France and Germany are facing internal political challenges, including the collapse of ruling coalitions and the rise of far-right movements. This instability is compounded by the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs on European imports. Although no tariffs have been announced yet, European automakers are particularly vulnerable to possible trade restrictions.

The US dollar has surged recently, propelled by the Fed’s hawkish shift. The dollar index hit a high of 109 on Thursday, the highest level since November 2022. The Fed, after initiating an easing cycle in September with a 50 basis point rate cut, is now signaling a more aggressive stance in response to resilient economic data, including strong jobs growth.

In contrast, the ECB is expected to continue easing its policy in 2025, with analysts forecasting another rate cut next year as the Eurozone grapples with ongoing economic and political challenges. These factors contribute to a bleak outlook for the Eurozone, with the region’s economy under pressure from both internal and external forces.

Business

ICT Specialists Lead EU Job Market as Most Advertised Profession

Published

17 hours ago

January 3, 2025

RTX

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) specialists are the most sought-after professionals in the European Union, making up 9% of all online job advertisements in 2023, according to new data from Eurostat. The findings shed light on the EU’s labor market trends, highlighting the most in-demand skills and occupations.

ICT Specialists Dominate Job Ads

In 2023, ICT specialists were featured in 871,000 online job advertisements, underscoring the high demand for professionals in this field. Software and applications developers and analysts ranked second with 515,000 ads (5.3%), followed by engineering professionals at 412,000 ads (4.3%).

Other notable professions included manufacturing workers (385,000 ads), physical and engineering science technicians (351,000 ads), and shop salespersons (312,000 ads). Transport and storage laborers, sales and marketing managers, clerical support workers, and financial professionals also featured prominently.

Healthcare and Service Occupations in Demand

The healthcare sector had a strong presence in online job postings, with 96,000 ads for doctors and 115,000 for personal care workers in health services. Combined with other health-related roles, these accounted for 3.5% of total job ads. Service roles, such as cooks and food preparation assistants, also saw significant demand, with nearly 100,000 ads posted.

Heavy truck and bus drivers were another key occupation, appearing in 136,000 ads, while car, van, and motorcycle drivers were sought after in 61,000 postings.

Key Skills Employers Seek

Across all fields, “willingness to learn” emerged as the most frequently requested skill, appearing in 26.2% of job ads. Teamwork skills were also highly valued, with 21.4% of postings highlighting the need for collaboration. Proactivity ranked third at 12.4%, while creative and innovative thinking was less commonly sought, appearing in only 4% of ads.

Understanding Recruitment Challenges with OJAR

Eurostat’s Online Job Advertisement Rate (OJAR) provides insights into recruitment challenges, taking into account both job ads and the number of employees in each sector. Sales, marketing, and development managers had the highest OJAR at 26.6%, followed by manufacturing workers (22.4%) and other sales workers (17.6%).

Public sector roles like healthcare workers and teachers were less represented online, likely due to traditional recruitment methods outside digital platforms.

Caution on Job Ad Data

Eurostat cautions that job advertisements are not direct indicators of vacancies. Some ads may represent multiple positions or exploratory postings by employers. Moreover, certain roles, particularly in the public sector, may not be widely advertised online.

The data offers valuable insights for job seekers and policymakers, pointing to the growing demand for ICT specialists and the evolving skillsets required in the EU’s labor market.