As Sudan enters its 20th month of civil war, the country is grappling with what experts are calling the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with conditions expected to deteriorate even further in the coming months.
The conflict, which erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has already claimed tens of thousands of lives. The war has displaced over 12 million people, while more than half of Sudan’s 48 million citizens face acute food insecurity. The country is also on the brink of famine, with millions of Sudanese struggling to survive amid widespread hunger and disease.
Political analysts and aid workers warn that the humanitarian situation will only worsen. Kholood Khair, a Sudanese political analyst, predicts that civilians will continue to face more displacement, hunger, and disease outbreaks in 2025. “Things look set to get much worse for civilians in the new year,” Khair said, pointing to the absence of a clear military victor and the ongoing violence that shows no sign of abating.
The conflict began as a power struggle between SAF leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. Despite once being allies, their partnership unraveled due to competing ambitions, leading to the current bloody conflict. Both sides have been accused of war crimes, including targeting civilians and weaponizing humanitarian aid.
In the Darfur region, the RSF is accused of committing atrocities against non-Arab ethnic groups, including possible ethnic cleansing, while the SAF has faced accusations of indiscriminate bombing attacks. A recent airstrike by the SAF on a market in North Darfur killed dozens of civilians, which Amnesty International described as a “flagrant war crime.”
The war has severely strained Sudan’s infrastructure, with over 70% of the country’s medical facilities out of operation. Additionally, a large cholera outbreak is further exacerbating the suffering, making it difficult to provide necessary care to the millions affected.
Despite these dire conditions, the international community has struggled to provide sufficient humanitarian aid. The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) sought over $1 billion in funding for Sudan but received only 40% of the required amount by October. While some international aid, such as a $200 million U.S. donation, has been pledged, the situation remains critical.
Humanitarian groups, including the International Rescue Committee (IRC), are calling for unfettered access to aid for those in need. However, the ongoing conflict and entrenched political positions of both the SAF and RSF complicate efforts to deliver assistance.
With no end in sight and the situation worsening by the day, Sudan faces the real possibility of fragmentation and prolonged suffering. As Khair notes, without significant political change and international intervention, Sudan’s civil war could last for decades, leaving civilians to bear the brunt of a conflict that shows no signs of resolution.
