France is awaiting a crucial court ruling on Tuesday that could determine whether nationalist leader Marine Le Pen will be allowed to contest the country’s presidential election next year, in a decision carrying major political consequences.
Le Pen, leader of the National Rally (RN), remains one of the leading contenders in opinion polls for the presidency. However, her political future depends on the outcome of an appeal against a conviction related to the misuse of European Parliament funds.
The appeal court in Paris is reviewing a March 2025 ruling that found Le Pen guilty of overseeing a system in which party staff working in France were allegedly listed as parliamentary assistants for RN lawmakers in Brussels and Strasbourg, with their salaries paid from European Union funds. Prosecutors argued the arrangement improperly used EU money to finance party operations during a period of financial pressure.
Le Pen has consistently denied wrongdoing and described the original judgment as politically motivated. Her lawyer, Rudolphe Bosselut, told the court during February hearings that its decision would have enormous political consequences because of the approaching presidential election.
The original sentence included two years of home detention with electronic monitoring and a five-year ban from holding public office. While the prison sentence was suspended pending appeal, the ban on public office was ordered to take effect immediately, placing Le Pen’s presidential ambitions in doubt.
If the appeal court upholds the five-year ban, Le Pen would be unable to run in the election. If she is cleared of the charges, she would remain eligible. Legal experts have also discussed the possibility of a reduced ban, such as two years, which could expire shortly before the first round of voting in April 2027. However, any requirement to wear an electronic monitoring device during the campaign could make nationwide campaigning difficult.
The case has also raised questions about the role of Jordan Bardella, the 30-year-old RN president, who is widely expected to become the party’s presidential candidate if Le Pen is barred from running. While opinion polls suggest Bardella could also perform strongly, analysts note that his limited experience in national campaigns may present challenges.
Both the defence and prosecutors could still take the case to France’s highest appeals court depending on Tuesday’s outcome, leaving the legal process open beyond the appeal ruling.
Despite the uncertainty, Le Pen has indicated she will remain active in politics regardless of the verdict, saying she will continue promoting her political agenda.
Tuesday’s decision is expected to shape not only Le Pen’s future but also the direction of France’s presidential race, with the National Rally’s strategy likely to depend on whether its long-time leader remains eligible to contest the country’s highest office.
