British households could face higher energy bills, food costs and air fares for at least eight months after the end of the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, a senior government minister has warned.
Darren Jones, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said the government was closely monitoring the economic fallout from the war and preparing for possible disruptions to fuel and food supplies. He said the effects of the conflict would continue to be felt long after fighting ends.
“Our best estimate is that economic impacts will continue for eight months or more after a resolution,” Jones said in an interview with the BBC. “People are likely to see higher energy prices, food prices and flight ticket prices as a result.”
The conflict has disrupted energy production and shipping routes across the Middle East, driving up global oil and gas prices and straining international supply chains. Concerns have been particularly acute over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global energy supplies.
The UK government has intensified contingency planning in response. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is due to chair another meeting of a Cabinet committee this week focused on potential shortages and economic risks. A separate ministerial task force, led by Jones, is meeting twice weekly to monitor stock levels and supply chain pressures.
Officials have previously examined worst-case scenarios, including shortages of key food items such as chicken and pork if disruptions persist. However, Jones stressed that rising prices, rather than empty supermarket shelves, remain the more likely outcome.
The government has also taken steps to secure supplies of carbon dioxide, an essential gas used in food preservation and meat processing. Funding has been provided to restart production at the Ensus bioethanol plant, which produces carbon dioxide as a by-product. The company said it was confident it could meet national demand.
Jones also addressed concerns about the availability of draught beer during the Men’s Football World Cup this summer, given the importance of carbon dioxide in beverage production.
“We are doing everything possible to ensure pubs remain fully supplied,” he said.
The International Monetary Fund recently warned that the UK could be among the hardest-hit advanced economies from the energy shock, lowering its forecast for British economic growth this year from 1.3% to 0.8%.
Airlines, meanwhile, have sought to reassure travellers, saying they are not currently facing jet fuel shortages, as most carriers purchase fuel in advance and airports maintain reserve supplies.
Opposition parties have urged the government to place food security at the centre of its economic strategy. The Liberal Democrats have called for measures including a temporary cut in fuel duty and lower public transport costs to help households cope with rising expenses.
While Britain has stayed out of direct military involvement, ministers acknowledge that international conflict continues to have significant consequences at home.
