The euro weakened further against the US dollar, reaching a fresh low not seen in over two years, as concerns grow over the Eurozone’s economic outlook, political instability, and monetary policy divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed).
On Thursday, the euro fell 0.9% against the US dollar, reaching 1.02, its lowest level since November 21, 2022. This decline continues the currency’s downward trajectory into the new year, fueled by fears over economic stagnation in the Eurozone and the policy rift between the ECB and the Fed.
The EUR/USD pair has plunged from a high of above 1.12 in September 2024, marking a 9% drop over the past three months. The US dollar has gained strength, aided by a more hawkish Federal Reserve and growing political uncertainty under the presidency of Donald Trump, whose policies have increased market volatility.
Analysts predict that the euro could soon reach parity with the dollar in 2025, a level last seen during the height of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This outlook is further clouded by escalating geopolitical risks and the economic impact of the war in Ukraine. On Wednesday, Ukraine halted Russian gas transit to Europe after a five-year contract expired, forcing European countries to turn to more expensive heating alternatives during a particularly harsh winter. Natural gas futures surged to a two-year high earlier this week before retreating to $3.66 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).
Adding to the Eurozone’s economic woes, weak manufacturing data has highlighted the region’s ongoing struggles. S&P Global’s December PMI showed continued contraction in both France and Germany’s manufacturing sectors. France recorded its sharpest decline in manufacturing activity since May 2020, while Germany saw its manufacturing output hit a three-month low. France’s central bank has also downgraded its economic growth forecast for 2025, now predicting just 0.9% growth, down from an earlier forecast of 1.2%.
Political instability is also adding to the uncertainty. Both France and Germany are facing internal political challenges, including the collapse of ruling coalitions and the rise of far-right movements. This instability is compounded by the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs on European imports. Although no tariffs have been announced yet, European automakers are particularly vulnerable to possible trade restrictions.
The US dollar has surged recently, propelled by the Fed’s hawkish shift. The dollar index hit a high of 109 on Thursday, the highest level since November 2022. The Fed, after initiating an easing cycle in September with a 50 basis point rate cut, is now signaling a more aggressive stance in response to resilient economic data, including strong jobs growth.
In contrast, the ECB is expected to continue easing its policy in 2025, with analysts forecasting another rate cut next year as the Eurozone grapples with ongoing economic and political challenges. These factors contribute to a bleak outlook for the Eurozone, with the region’s economy under pressure from both internal and external forces.
