Economists Predict Potential Euro Weakening in Case of Trump Victory

Published

2 months ago

November 4, 2024

RTX

As the U.S. elections approach, economists largely agree that a victory for Donald Trump could weaken the euro against the dollar. The single currency has already fallen more than 2% in the month leading up to the vote, reflecting increasing concerns about a Trump win. Analysts warn that if Republicans achieve a “red sweep” by securing full control of Congress, the euro could potentially fall to parity or below against the dollar.

One of the primary mechanisms for this shift would be Trump’s proposed tariffs on foreign goods, including a potential 60% tariff on Chinese imports and a 10% tariff on products from other nations. Economists caution that such tariffs would likely drive inflation in the United States, as the cost of imported goods rises and companies pass these costs onto consumers. This inflation could prompt a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve, which may need to raise interest rates to combat price pressures linked to the tariffs.

In contrast, Europe could face a slowdown in economic growth due to the U.S. protectionist policies, potentially prompting the European Central Bank (ECB) to adopt a looser monetary policy to support its economy. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates while the ECB eases, the interest rate differential could lead to a stronger dollar, further pressuring the euro.

In addition to tariffs, a Trump administration may also implement stricter immigration policies. This reduction in available labor could push wages higher as companies compete for workers, contributing to inflation and reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s need for tighter monetary policy. Such developments would likely bolster the dollar and disadvantage the euro.

Luca Santos, a foreign exchange analyst at ACY Securities, noted that a Trump victory could result in policy changes aimed at boosting U.S. economic growth, leading to a stronger dollar as investors anticipate a favorable climate for U.S. assets. Similarly, Georgette Boele, Senior FX & Precious Metals Strategist at ABN Amro, highlighted the impact of Trump’s trade policies on the dollar, pointing out that recent polling changes have heightened volatility in the dollar ahead of the election.

Strategists at BBVA predict that if Trump wins, especially with a full Republican Congress, the euro could drop below $1.08. Conversely, they foresee a weaker dollar should Vice President Kamala Harris win the election. Goldman Sachs offered one of the most pessimistic forecasts for the euro, suggesting it could weaken by up to 10% under Trump’s policies, potentially bringing it below parity with the dollar.

Historically, the initial months of Trump’s presidency saw the dollar strengthen, with the euro declining from $1.10 to $1.0340 by early 2017. However, as Trump’s economic agenda faced delays and eurozone growth improved, the euro later appreciated against the dollar.

While a drop to euro-dollar parity is not certain, renewed U.S. protectionism, rising inflation, and diverging central bank policies could all significantly influence the euro’s trajectory in the coming months, particularly if tariffs adversely affect European exports. Investors are closely monitoring these developments as the election draws near.

Business

Eurozone Inflation Rises to 2.4% in December, Markets Still Expect ECB Rate Cuts in 2025

Published

6 hours ago

January 7, 2025

RTX

Inflation in the eurozone rose to 2.4% year-on-year in December, up from 2.2% in November, according to preliminary data from Eurostat. While the increase matched economists’ forecasts, it highlighted ongoing inflationary pressures in the region, complicating efforts by the European Central Bank (ECB) to meet its 2% target.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.4%, reversing the 0.3% decline seen in November. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, remained steady at 2.7%, in line with expectations. Despite the stable core inflation, the persistent inflationary challenges are expected to keep the ECB focused on further action.

Among the key contributors to inflation, services remained the leading category, with an annual rate of 4%, slightly up from 3.9% in November. Food, alcohol, and tobacco prices stayed steady at 2.7%, while non-energy industrial goods saw a slight decrease in inflation, easing to 0.5% from 0.6%. Energy prices rebounded significantly, rising 0.1% year-on-year after a -2% drop in November, reflecting higher fuel costs in some eurozone countries.

Kyle Chapman, an analyst at Ballinger Group, suggested that the inflation rise was unlikely to alter the ECB’s course. “This figure does close to nothing in terms of altering the path for the ECB,” Chapman said. He noted that Frankfurt had been anticipating a temporary rise in inflation and is likely to overlook it for now.

Regional Variations in Inflation

Inflation rates varied widely across eurozone countries. Croatia led with the highest annual rate at 4.5%, followed by Belgium at 4.4%. Other significant readings included Germany at 2.8%, Greece at 2.9%, and Spain at 2.8%. In Belgium and Germany, monthly inflation rose by 0.7%, the second-highest across member states.

Ireland recorded the lowest annual inflation rate at 1%, but saw a notable monthly spike of 0.9%. In contrast, Italy, with one of the lowest annual rates at 1.4%, had only a 0.1% monthly rise. France’s inflation increased to 1.8%, the highest since August, while Spain saw a 2.8% inflation rate, the highest since July 2024.

Market Reactions

Despite the inflation data aligning with expectations, financial markets reacted mildly. Shorter-dated eurozone bond yields, which had spiked following Germany’s surprise inflation report on Monday, edged lower. The two-year Schatz yield fell 3 basis points to 2.18%, while the benchmark 10-year Bund yield held steady at 2.45%.

The euro continued its upward trend, rising 0.4% to $1.0430, as market expectations remain focused on future ECB rate cuts. Traders are anticipating a 25 basis-point cut at the ECB’s meeting on January 30, with over 100 basis points of cumulative cuts expected throughout 2025.

European equity indices traded slightly higher, with the Euro STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 up 0.2%. Germany’s DAX also gained 0.2%, while France’s CAC 40 outperformed, rising 0.4%. Italy’s FTSE MIB lagged, slipping 0.1%.

Sector-wise, luxury and consumer goods stocks outperformed, with Adidas rising 2.2%, while banks underperformed, with the Euro STOXX Banks Index down 1.1%. Notable declines were seen in Deutsche Bank, which fell 1.6%, and Ireland’s AIB Group, which dropped 1.8%.

Business

Italy in Talks for €1.5bn Deal with SpaceX Amid Local Opposition

Published

1 day ago

January 6, 2025

RTX

The Italian government is advancing negotiations for a €1.5 billion telecommunications security services contract with SpaceX, according to reports. The proposed deal, which includes encryption services for telephone and internet communications for Italy’s government and military, has been under review since mid-2023 but has faced opposition from local telecommunications providers.

The potential five-year agreement follows a visit by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to President-elect Donald Trump in Florida, sparking speculation that Musk’s support for Trump may help expedite the deal. The Italian Intelligence Services and Defence Ministry are reported to have approved the project, which would enhance the security of critical communications across the country.

SpaceX’s services could include encrypted communication solutions for the Italian government and military, designed to enhance national security. However, the deal has faced significant resistance from local telecommunication operators, who argue that SpaceX’s business model could undermine the domestic market.

In November 2023, the lobbying group Assetel called for a review of regulations governing low-orbit satellite broadband services, particularly in regard to SpaceX’s Starlink network. The group raised concerns that SpaceX’s direct-to-consumer sales approach bypasses existing regulations, potentially circumventing rules on data storage and creating unfair competition with local telecom companies.

Italian telecom operators have been struggling with mounting debts and intense price competition. Telecom Italia reported €8 billion in net debt for the third quarter of 2023, despite selling its network to US private equity firm KKR in a €22 billion government-backed deal. Meanwhile, Swisscom’s acquisition of Vodafone Italia in December, for €8 billion, was another sign of financial strain in the Italian telecom sector.

Italy is also facing pressure to meet its broadband network expansion targets under the EU-funded Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). Despite receiving €113.5 billion in recovery funds, Italy is behind schedule in rolling out high-speed internet, a key part of its economic revitalization plan. Only a third of the 3.4 million buildings targeted by the €3.4 billion plan have been connected to broadband, leading the government to consider using Starlink to make up for delays.

SpaceX, which has expanded its global footprint significantly, has launched over 6,700 active satellites, serving more than four million customers across 100 countries. Starlink’s services have reached approximately 55,000 customers in Italy, and with new satellites launched in December 2024, SpaceX aims to broaden its global coverage even further.

The negotiations between SpaceX and Italy continue amid local opposition and challenges in Italy’s broadband expansion efforts, with the final decision expected to have far-reaching implications for both domestic telecommunications and international relations.

Business

Nippon Steel and US Steel Sue US Government Over Blocked Takeover

Published

1 day ago

January 6, 2025

RTX

Nippon Steel and US Steel have filed a lawsuit against the US government, alleging political interference in President Joe Biden’s decision to block Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion takeover of US Steel. The companies claim Biden “ignored the rule of law” to curry favor with trade unions and advance his political agenda.

The lawsuit comes after Biden rejected the deal on Friday, citing national security concerns and the need for a strong, domestically-owned steel industry to support critical supply chains, including those for the automotive and defense sectors. Biden argued that allowing the acquisition would undermine US interests despite its potential to bolster Nippon Steel’s competitiveness against China’s steel dominance, which accounts for 60% of global production.

Political Context and Allegations

The proposed takeover, first announced in December 2023, had been in limbo for months. Biden’s decision to block the deal aligns with a campaign promise to protect domestic industries, particularly in Pennsylvania, a key swing state where US Steel is headquartered.

Nippon Steel and US Steel have requested a court-ordered review of the purchase, accusing the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) of failing to conduct a “good faith, national security-focused regulatory review.” The companies also filed lawsuits against United Steelworkers President David McCall and Cleveland-Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves, alleging “illegal and coordinated actions” to obstruct the deal.

McCall, who supported a $7.3 billion acquisition bid from Cleveland-Cliffs in mid-2023, defended Biden’s decision, stating it safeguarded national security and protected the domestic steel industry.

Japanese Concerns

The move has drawn criticism from Japan. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressed concerns about the decision’s potential impact on trade relations between the two G7 allies. “We must insist on an explanation as to why there are security concerns; otherwise, there will be no progress in future discussions,” Ishiba said on Monday.

Nippon Steel has reiterated its commitment to investing $2.7 billion in US Steel and emphasized that the acquisition would strengthen the US steel industry, particularly against competition from China.

Future Uncertainty

The lawsuit’s outcome could hinge on the next administration, but prospects remain uncertain. President-elect Donald Trump has also vowed to block the deal, arguing it would undervalue US Steel amid plans for sweeping tariffs on foreign imports.

“Why sell US Steel now when tariffs will make it a much more profitable and valuable company?” Trump wrote on Truth Social, referencing his plans to reintroduce protectionist measures similar to those from his first term.

Economic analyses of Trump’s 2018 tariffs indicate mixed outcomes: modest job gains at steel manufacturers but job losses in other sectors affected by higher steel costs.

The legal battle underscores the tensions between economic nationalism and global trade relations, leaving the fate of the acquisition—and its broader implications for US-Japan ties—in limbo.