As the U.S. elections approach, economists largely agree that a victory for Donald Trump could weaken the euro against the dollar. The single currency has already fallen more than 2% in the month leading up to the vote, reflecting increasing concerns about a Trump win. Analysts warn that if Republicans achieve a “red sweep” by securing full control of Congress, the euro could potentially fall to parity or below against the dollar.
One of the primary mechanisms for this shift would be Trump’s proposed tariffs on foreign goods, including a potential 60% tariff on Chinese imports and a 10% tariff on products from other nations. Economists caution that such tariffs would likely drive inflation in the United States, as the cost of imported goods rises and companies pass these costs onto consumers. This inflation could prompt a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve, which may need to raise interest rates to combat price pressures linked to the tariffs.
In contrast, Europe could face a slowdown in economic growth due to the U.S. protectionist policies, potentially prompting the European Central Bank (ECB) to adopt a looser monetary policy to support its economy. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates while the ECB eases, the interest rate differential could lead to a stronger dollar, further pressuring the euro.
In addition to tariffs, a Trump administration may also implement stricter immigration policies. This reduction in available labor could push wages higher as companies compete for workers, contributing to inflation and reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s need for tighter monetary policy. Such developments would likely bolster the dollar and disadvantage the euro.
Luca Santos, a foreign exchange analyst at ACY Securities, noted that a Trump victory could result in policy changes aimed at boosting U.S. economic growth, leading to a stronger dollar as investors anticipate a favorable climate for U.S. assets. Similarly, Georgette Boele, Senior FX & Precious Metals Strategist at ABN Amro, highlighted the impact of Trump’s trade policies on the dollar, pointing out that recent polling changes have heightened volatility in the dollar ahead of the election.
Strategists at BBVA predict that if Trump wins, especially with a full Republican Congress, the euro could drop below $1.08. Conversely, they foresee a weaker dollar should Vice President Kamala Harris win the election. Goldman Sachs offered one of the most pessimistic forecasts for the euro, suggesting it could weaken by up to 10% under Trump’s policies, potentially bringing it below parity with the dollar.
Historically, the initial months of Trump’s presidency saw the dollar strengthen, with the euro declining from $1.10 to $1.0340 by early 2017. However, as Trump’s economic agenda faced delays and eurozone growth improved, the euro later appreciated against the dollar.
While a drop to euro-dollar parity is not certain, renewed U.S. protectionism, rising inflation, and diverging central bank policies could all significantly influence the euro’s trajectory in the coming months, particularly if tariffs adversely affect European exports. Investors are closely monitoring these developments as the election draws near.
