Israel has initiated its fourth military incursion into Lebanon, with the stated objective of disarming Hezbollah and securing the northern region of Galilee. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) aim to prevent missile attacks from Hezbollah and restore safety for residents in the area. However, the operation seeks to avoid the operational pitfalls experienced during previous conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, particularly the 2006 war, which resulted in significant military and diplomatic challenges for Israel.
Agnes Helou, a Lebanese defense analyst at Breaking Defense, noted that while Israel does not intend to annex southern Lebanon, it is focused on eliminating security threats from Hezbollah. “It needs to protect the north of Israel and bring the inhabitants of Galilee back to their houses,” she explained.
Historically, Israel has relied on local proxies to maintain security, such as the Phalangists and the South Lebanon Army (SLA) during Lebanon’s civil war. However, the SLA was disbanded in 2000, leaving Israel to navigate the current landscape without established local allies.
Currently, the IDF appears to be limiting its operations to commando missions and reconnaissance to identify and neutralize Hezbollah positions. While Israel has achieved tactical successes recently, including attacks on Hezbollah leadership, the situation remains complex. The hilly terrain of southern Lebanon presents challenges distinct from the urban warfare seen in Gaza.
“The IDF faces difficulties maintaining its positions and ensuring the safety of its troops,” Helou warned. She emphasized that while Israel possesses the military strength to defeat Hezbollah, the challenges of the post-conflict scenario are substantial.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has urged Lebanese citizens to “free your country from Hezbollah” to avoid the devastation seen in Gaza. Meanwhile, informal talks regarding a ceasefire have emerged, with various Lebanese factions expressing a desire to disarm Hezbollah within a designated buffer zone.
The political landscape in Lebanon is shifting, with some factions, including the Amal movement, advocating for a truce and the disarmament of Hezbollah. Hadi Murad, a Shia activist, highlighted the division within the Shia community and the growing fatigue with ongoing conflict.
“The majority of Shia parties are in favor of a ceasefire,” Murad noted, suggesting a potential window for cooperation between the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and Israel.
The future of Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon remains uncertain. While the group retains significant support among the Shia population, there is a growing desire for stability and an end to violence. For Israel, the key question is whether to trust the LAF to maintain security in southern Lebanon or to prepare for a prolonged asymmetric conflict.
Ultimately, the outcome of the current operation and the future of Hezbollah will depend on the evolving political dynamics in Lebanon and the willingness of various factions to pursue peace and stability in the region.
