A group of European nations, led by the United Kingdom and France, has been quietly discussing a potential military deployment to Ukraine to help enforce any future peace agreement with Russia. The discussions have taken on a new sense of urgency amid fears that a future U.S. administration under Donald Trump could bypass European allies and strike a unilateral deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
UK and France at the Forefront
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed on Thursday that the UK would play a role in any post-war security framework for Ukraine but declined to provide specifics.
“I won’t get into the particular capabilities, but I do accept that if there is peace, then there needs to be some sort of security guarantee for Ukraine,” Starmer said.
The concept of European troops in Ukraine first gained traction in early 2024 when French President Emmanuel Macron refused to rule out deploying forces on the ground. His stance initially met strong opposition from Germany and Poland, but recent discussions indicate a shift in attitudes.
Behind-the-Scenes Talks
The first high-level talks on the idea took place in December 2024, at a private meeting at NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte’s residence in Brussels. Attendees included leaders and ministers from the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Denmark, and the Netherlands, along with top EU officials.
The plan is still in early stages, and several obstacles remain. Italy’s constitution limits its ability to send troops abroad, while the Dutch and German governments would require parliamentary approval before committing to a deployment. Poland, meanwhile, remains cautious due to historical tensions with Ukraine.
Challenges and Possible Deployment Size
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made clear that he envisions a force of 100,000 to 150,000 troops securing a post-war peace, while media reports suggest a smaller 30,000- to 40,000-strong European contingent. No final figure has been confirmed by European officials.
Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur emphasized that any deployment would depend on the conditions of a peace agreement. If Russian and Ukrainian forces agree to draw down troop levels, European forces could more easily maintain stability. However, if active fighting continues, the situation would become far more complex.
Ukraine’s Position and Future Alliances
During the Munich Security Conference, Zelenskyy argued that Ukraine’s military experience could play a pivotal role in Europe’s future security. He proposed the formation of a new military alliance, calling for an “Armed Forces of Europe” to counter Russia.
“Without the Ukrainian army, European armies will not be enough to stop Russia. This is the reality,” Zelenskyy stated.
However, he acknowledged that Ukraine lacks sufficient military equipment, including fighter jets and air defense systems.
“If we had 150 to 160 F-16 fighter jets and over 25 Patriot missile systems, why would we need U.S. or European troops?” he questioned.
Implications for NATO and the EU
Zelenskyy has insisted that if Ukraine is not granted NATO membership, an alternative security structure must be created—potentially involving European troops on the ground. He also warned that Russia could attack European NATO states from Belarus as soon as this year, increasing the urgency for Europe to develop a unified military response.
As discussions continue, European leaders must decide whether they are willing and able to send troops to Ukraine’s front lines—and what risks such a move could pose for relations with Russia.
