Counting has begun in Ireland’s general election, with exit polls indicating a tight contest between the country’s three major political parties. Early projections suggest Sinn Féin holds a slight lead over both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, but the final results remain uncertain.
Figures from Friday’s exit poll, conducted by Ipsos B&A for RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, and Trinity College Dublin, revealed that Sinn Féin secured 21.1% of first preference votes, edging out Fine Gael with 21%, and Fianna Fáil at 19.5%. The poll also showed strong second preference support for both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with Sinn Féin receiving 17%.
The election is expected to elect a record 174 Teachtaí Dála (TDs), up from 160 in 2020, following a boundary review that introduced 43 constituencies, an increase from 39. Each constituency will elect between three and five TDs. An overall majority requires 88 TDs, and 680 candidates are vying for the 173 available seats.
Voting has now concluded, with the counting of ballots beginning at 09:00 local time across more than 40 centres. The first results are expected later in the afternoon.
Early Trends and Surprises
Early tallies suggest some government ministers may struggle to retain their seats. In Wicklow, which elects four TDs, Health Minister Stephen Donnelly is trailing in fifth place, raising questions about the government’s handling of the healthcare system, which was a key issue during the campaign.
Similarly, in Dublin Mid-West, Green Party Minister for Children, Roderic O’Gorman, is also in a vulnerable position, currently sitting in sixth place. O’Gorman faced criticism for his role in managing asylum seeker integration, particularly amid a rise in misinformation and a shortage of accommodation for refugees.
On the other hand, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald is expected to secure the first seat in Dublin Central. Other candidates, including Social Democrat Gary Gannon and Fine Gael Minister Paschal Donohoe, are expected to hold onto their seats with little competition.
A notable race is taking place for the final seat in Dublin Central, where Labour Party Senator Marie Sherlock is facing off against Independent candidate Gerard Hutch. Hutch, who was previously cleared of involvement in a 2016 murder case, has been in the news recently due to his release on bail following a money laundering investigation in Spain.
Proportional Representation and Coalition Talks
Ireland uses a proportional representation system known as the single transferable vote (STV), where voters rank candidates in order of preference. This system requires multiple rounds of counting as votes are redistributed until all seats in a constituency are filled. Due to this process, the full results could take several days to emerge.
Forming a government may take even longer. In 2020, it took four months for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party to reach a coalition agreement, with Sinn Féin emerging as the leading opposition party. The new Dáil is expected to convene on December 18, but coalition talks are unlikely to conclude before 2025.
As counting continues, the nation awaits clarity on the final outcome of this closely contested election.
