Russia’s decision to stop gas exports to European Union (EU) states via Ukraine marks the end of a decades-long energy arrangement, leaving significant geopolitical and economic consequences. The termination of the five-year transit agreement, which expired on January 1, 2025, has sparked tensions across Europe, particularly in Eastern European countries reliant on Russian energy supplies.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the move, stating that Ukraine would not allow Russia to “earn additional billions on our blood.” In contrast, Poland’s government celebrated the cut-off as another victory over Moscow, further isolating Russia from European markets. Meanwhile, the European Commission assured EU states that they were prepared for the change, with most countries able to adjust to the disruption. However, Moldova, which is not an EU member, has already begun experiencing energy shortages.
Russian energy giant Gazprom confirmed that gas exports via Ukraine ceased on Wednesday at 08:00 local time (05:00 GMT). This marks the first time since 1991 that Russia will no longer send gas to Europe through this route. While the immediate impact has been relatively mild for many EU nations, the symbolic and strategic ramifications are profound. Although Russia has lost an important market, President Vladimir Putin asserts that the EU will be the most affected by the disruption.
The EU had significantly reduced its reliance on Russian gas since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with Russian gas comprising less than 10% of EU imports in 2023 compared to 40% in 2021. Despite this decline, several Eastern EU countries, including Slovakia and Austria, remain heavily dependent on Russian supplies, making the cessation of gas flow a critical issue. Slovakia, in particular, has become the main entry point for Russian gas into the EU and now faces higher costs for alternative routes. Slovakia’s Prime Minister, Robert Fico, warned of “drastic” consequences for EU countries following the deal’s expiry, and tensions escalated when he threatened to halt electricity exports to Ukraine. Zelensky accused Fico of aiding Moscow’s war efforts and weakening Ukraine.
Poland has pledged support to Ukraine in case Slovakia follows through on its threat, emphasizing the availability of alternative gas routes through terminals in Croatia and connections from Germany and Poland. Poland has also been sourcing gas from the U.S., Qatar, and the North Sea.
Moldova, which relies on Russian gas for power generation, is facing severe challenges. The breakaway region of Transnistria, which depends on Moldova for gas supplies, has already been affected by the cutoff, with heating and hot water suspended. Moldova’s Prime Minister, Dorin Recean, accused Russia of using energy as a political weapon, exacerbating the situation amid a winter cold snap.
The European Union has increasingly turned to liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the U.S., as well as piped gas from Norway, to reduce its dependence on Russia. In December, the European Commission announced plans to fully replace gas transit through Ukraine with alternative sources in the coming years.
