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Beijing has responded to escalating trade tensions with Washington, announcing new tariffs on American imports in what appears to be a strategic but measured counterstrike.

China will impose a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), alongside a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and large-engine cars imported from the U.S. The new levies, set to take effect on February 10, leave a narrow window for diplomacy before the world’s two largest economies edge closer to a full-blown trade war.

A Calculated Move

The timing and scope of China’s retaliation suggest that Beijing is still open to negotiations. The White House has confirmed that U.S. and Chinese leaders are scheduled to hold talks later this week, indicating that diplomatic channels remain open despite the latest announcement.

While these tariffs target key U.S. exports, they are significantly less severe than the sweeping 10% tariff imposed by Washington on all Chinese goods entering the U.S. China’s response appears strategic rather than purely punitive, likely aimed at gaining leverage in upcoming discussions.

Why These Tariffs?

Despite being the world’s largest LNG exporter, the U.S. ships only about 2.3% of its LNG to China, meaning the new tariffs will have a limited immediate impact. Similarly, China’s major car imports primarily come from Europe and Japan, not the U.S.

By focusing on specific industries rather than issuing broad retaliatory measures, China may be signaling its willingness to negotiate rather than escalate.

Economic and Political Considerations

For President Xi Jinping, engaging in an all-out trade war with the U.S. could further strain China’s struggling economy. Beijing is already grappling with sluggish growth, a property market crisis, and weak consumer demand.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump, who has prioritized economic decoupling from China, faces a more resilient and globally integrated Beijing than during his first term. China has expanded its trade partnerships, becoming the leading trade partner for more than 120 countries, and has steadily reduced its economy’s reliance on exports and imports.

Lessons from the Past

This latest standoff is reminiscent of the 2018 U.S.-China trade war, which saw both nations slap tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of goods. The dispute lasted more than two years, only ending when China agreed to purchase an additional $200 billion worth of U.S. goods in 2020.

However, the COVID-19 pandemic derailed that agreement, and the U.S. trade deficit with China now stands at $361 billion, according to Chinese customs data.

What’s Next?

The biggest concern for Beijing is whether Trump will increase tariffs further, potentially raising them to the 60% level he promised during his campaign. If Trump follows through, China may be forced to expand its retaliatory measures beyond tariffs, possibly targeting U.S. companies, technology exports, or financial markets.

With tensions escalating and the deadline fast approaching, global businesses and investors are closely watching to see if the two economic superpowers can find common ground before a new trade war erupts.

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Trump’s 25% Tariff on Steel and Aluminum Imports Set to Drive Up Costs Across Industries

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President Donald Trump has announced a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States, a move that will end exemptions for major trade partners Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and the European Union. The new tariffs, expected to take effect next month, are raising concerns across multiple industries about potential price increases for consumers.

Impact on Canned Goods and Beverages

The U.S. canned food industry, which imports around 70% of its steel, is expected to face significant cost pressures. Major food companies, including General Mills, Del Monte, and Goya, have warned that higher steel prices will likely lead to increased grocery prices.

Robert Budway, president of the Can Manufacturers Institute (CMI), expressed concerns that without exemptions, the tariffs could undermine food security and disrupt the supply chain.

“While the president may believe that these tariffs are protecting the steel industry, they certainly are undermining our food security and supply resiliency,” Budway said.

Similarly, the beverage industry, including Coca-Cola and major brewers, has cautioned that higher aluminum costs will drive up production expenses. Coca-Cola CEO James Quincey acknowledged that while the company could mitigate the impact, increased prices were still a possibility for consumers.

Automotive Industry Warns of Higher Car Prices

U.S. automakers, which rely heavily on imported metals, have also sounded the alarm. The last round of Trump-era steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018 resulted in a $1 billion cost increase for manufacturers such as Ford and General Motors.

According to Morningstar analyst David Whiston, a similar price hike could occur this time, potentially adding around $300 per vehicle for consumers. However, with automobile sales still below pre-pandemic levels, manufacturers may be hesitant to pass the full cost onto buyers.

Michael Wall, an auto industry expert at S&P Global Mobility, warned that the tariffs could lead to higher costs trickling down to consumers. He noted, however, that the real risk comes from Trump’s broader tariff proposal on all imports from Canada and Mexico, which is currently on hold until March.

If those tariffs are implemented, TD Economics estimates that vehicle prices could rise by up to $3,000.

Ford CEO Jim Farley called Trump’s trade moves “a lot of cost and a lot of chaos” for the auto industry.

Construction and Housing Market to Feel the Squeeze

The construction industry, one of the largest users of steel, is also set to suffer from rising material costs. Carl Harris, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders, criticized the tariffs, saying they run “totally counter” to Trump’s stated goal of making housing more affordable.

“Ultimately, consumers will pay for these tariffs in the form of higher home prices,” Harris said.

The homebuilding and appliance sectors are bracing for cost increases. After the 2018 steel tariffs, Whirlpool reported a $350 million jump in production costs due to higher steel prices.

While some companies may absorb the added costs, many industry leaders expect retail prices to increase, affecting everything from appliances to home construction materials.

Uncertain Future for U.S. Trade Policy

Trump has rejected calls for exemptions, insisting that all steel and aluminum imports must face the same tariff rules. However, some industries hope he will reconsider before the tariffs take effect.

With businesses across multiple sectors warning of higher prices, it remains to be seen whether consumer costs will rise significantly or if companies will find ways to absorb the financial hit. Either way, Trump’s latest trade policy move is already creating uncertainty for industries and markets alike.

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Global EV Sales Surge in January, But China Sees Slower Growth

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Strong electric vehicle (EV) sales in Europe and North America helped drive global EV sales up 18% year-on-year in January, despite softer growth in China, according to EV research firm Rho Motion.

A total of 1.3 million EVs were sold worldwide in January, marking a significant increase from the same period in 2024. However, sales dropped 35% from December, a seasonal decline largely driven by the Chinese New Year effect.

Europe and North America Lead the Charge

In Europe, including the EU, European Free Trade Association (EFTA), and the UK, EV sales jumped 21% year-on-year to 250,000 units. Similarly, the US and Canada saw a 22% increase, with sales reaching 130,000 vehicles.

The European market’s strong start to 2025 comes as new emissions standards take effect, pushing automakers to accelerate EV production to avoid regulatory penalties.

China’s EV Market Slows, But Seasonal Trends Play a Role

China, the world’s largest EV market, experienced softer growth, with EV sales rising just 12% in January 2025 compared to the previous year. However, analysts attribute this slowdown to seasonal factors, as the Chinese New Year typically results in weaker vehicle sales in January and February.

Rho Motion expects Chinese EV sales to remain sluggish in February due to the holiday period, before rebounding later in the year.

Charles Lester, Data Manager at Rho Motion, commented on the trend:

“With emission standards coming into force for European manufacturers this year, all eyes are on the opening month for the region, which shows encouraging growth at 21% compared to the same time last year.

The Chinese market, as expected, shrunk 43% from the previous month as drivers tend to go all in at the end of the year before the Chinese New Year public holidays fall in January and February.

The US and Canada market hasn’t yet been impacted by the new occupant of the White House and is showing a consistent year-on-year increase of 22%. All in all, an uncontroversial start to the year for the EV market globally, though this is not going to remain that way for long.”

Europe’s EV Sales Bolstered by New Regulations

The EU’s EV market remains robust, despite higher tariffs on Chinese EVs introduced last year over concerns of unfair government subsidies. The tariffs target battery electric vehicles (BEVs), prompting many Chinese manufacturers to shift focus to hybrid vehicles to maintain their foothold in Europe.

Among individual markets, Germany recorded a 40% increase in EV sales in January. In contrast, French EV sales fell 15%, following the introduction of a new weight tax on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). This led many consumers to purchase PHEVs in December 2024 to avoid the tax, causing a decline in January sales.

Looking Ahead: EV Market Faces Policy Shifts and Trade Uncertainty

While January’s figures reflect steady global EV adoption, analysts caution that trade policies, emissions regulations, and government incentives will play a crucial role in shaping the market in 2025.

With Europe tightening emission rules, China adjusting to seasonal slowdowns, and North America awaiting potential policy shifts, the EV sector is set for an eventful year ahead.

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BP to ‘Fundamentally Reset’ Strategy as Profits Plummet

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Oil giant BP has announced plans for a major strategic overhaul following a sharp decline in profits, a move expected to include scaling back its renewable energy ambitions and increasing oil and gas production.

The company reported a net income of $8.9 billion (£7.2 billion) for 2024, a significant drop from $13.8 billion in the previous year. BP attributed the decline to lower oil and gas prices as well as reduced profits from its refining operations.

Shift Away from Renewables

BP had previously committed to generating 50GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, but that target is expected to be abandoned when the company unveils its revised strategy on February 26.

The company has already been retreating from its renewable energy commitments. In December, it transferred the bulk of its offshore wind assets into a joint venture with Japanese company Jera, effectively separating them from its core fossil fuel business. BP also froze new wind projects in June 2023 and is now expected to cut its $10 billion renewables investment plan by up to half.

Investor Pressure and Growing Criticism

BP’s shift towards fossil fuels comes as activist hedge fund Elliott Management has acquired a stake in the company, pushing for greater investment in oil and gas. Analysts suggest Elliott’s influence may lead to board changes.

Russ Mould, an analyst at AJ Bell, noted that BP’s profit slump had strengthened Elliott’s case. “A clear and credible plan is desperately needed if BP is going to remain the master of its own destiny,” he said.

However, the decision to pivot back to oil and gas has drawn criticism from environmental groups, who argue that BP and other fossil fuel companies are worsening the climate crisis.

Global Witness, a human rights campaign group, pointed out that BP invested nearly £9 billion in oil and gas last year, compared with only £1.3 billion on renewables and low-carbon energy.

“As the world battles extreme weather disasters supercharged by fossil fuels, it is wrong that polluters such as BP can double down on the oil and gas that is driving climate breakdown,” said Lela Stanley, the group’s head of fossil fuels investigations.

Industry-Wide Trend Towards Fossil Fuels

BP’s move reflects a broader trend in the oil and gas industry, with several major energy firms scaling back their renewable energy investments due to concerns over profitability.

Last week, Norwegian energy giant Equinor announced plans to halve its investment in renewable energy over the next two years, citing rising costs and a slower-than-expected transition to low-carbon energy. Shell has also stepped back from new offshore wind investments, following similar concerns.

Former BP strategy head Nick Butler defended the shift, stating that big oil firms would invest in renewables “when they can see a clear profit.”

Political Uncertainty and Climate Implications

The debate over fossil fuel investment is also playing out on the political stage. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly expressed support for fossil fuels, recently renewed his pledge to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement if re-elected. He has also vowed to ramp up oil and gas exploration, telling supporters the U.S. will “drill, baby, drill.”

In response, environmental activists are pushing for stronger regulations on fossil fuel companies. Elena Polisano of Greenpeace said growing pressure on governments could lead to higher taxation on oil and gas profits, with funds directed towards climate disaster recovery efforts, as seen in Vermont and New York.

“Oil majors like BP are fuelling the climate crisis,” she said. “So it’s only fair to make polluters pay.”

As BP prepares to unveil its new strategy, the company faces increasing scrutiny over whether its pursuit of profit-driven fossil fuel expansion aligns with global efforts to combat climate change.

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