Turkey has recorded the steepest drop in fertility rates in Europe over the past decade, raising concern among policymakers and demographers as the country grapples with economic strain and shifting social norms.
According to data from TurkStat, Turkey’s total fertility rate fell from 2.11 in 2013 to 1.51 in 2023. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan described the situation as a “disaster” in November 2025, a year declared the “Year of the Family” in an effort to reverse the trend.
Among 34 European countries, Turkey experienced the largest decline in that period, both in absolute and percentage terms. By comparison, the European Union’s fertility rate declined from 1.51 to 1.38 over the same timeframe, according to Eurostat.
Experts say the reasons behind Turkey’s sharp drop are complex. Dr Selin Köksal of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine cautions that the total fertility rate captures births in a given year and does not necessarily reflect how many children women will have over their lifetimes. She notes that delayed childbearing has become a defining feature of modern fertility patterns.
Köksal argues that completed cohort fertility, which measures the number of children women have by the end of their reproductive years, may present a less alarming picture. Based on survey calculations, she suggests that Turkey’s completed fertility remains above the 2.1 replacement level, though official figures are not published.
Still, the pace of decline in recent years has drawn attention. Köksal links the trend to Turkey’s deepening financial crisis, rising inflation and soaring housing costs, all of which have eroded purchasing power. Under such conditions, she says, many couples postpone or reconsider having children.
Dr Hande Inanc of Brandeis University believes postponement alone cannot explain the roughly half-point drop in fertility within six years. She points to fewer families choosing to have a third child, reflecting both changing preferences and structural barriers. High living costs, limited childcare options and work environments that remain challenging for working mothers increase the burden of larger families.
Professor Mehmet Ali Eryurt of Hacettepe University says Turkey is undergoing a demographic transition similar to that experienced earlier by European countries, though compressed into a shorter timeframe. Rapid urbanisation, rising female education and greater female participation in the workforce have reshaped family patterns.
Economic pressures appear central to the recent acceleration. Education costs have risen sharply, especially with the expansion of private schooling. The Ministry of National Education reports that private school enrolment has steadily increased over the past two decades.
Marriage patterns are also shifting. The average age of women at first birth rose from 25.5 in 2014 to 27.3 in 2024, while the average age at first marriage increased as well. The divorce-to-marriage ratio has climbed significantly over the past decade, further shortening the window for childbearing.
Some researchers also highlight changes in the marriage market. Dr Onur Altındağ of Bentley University notes that women now surpass men in university attainment, altering expectations and contributing to later or fewer marriages.
Despite the decline, Turkey’s fertility rate remains above the EU average. Within the bloc, Bulgaria records the highest rate at 1.81, while Malta has the lowest at 1.06.
