National Treasury Management Agency has warned that Ireland’s national debt, currently standing at about €200 billion, could climb to €250 billion by the 2030s, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability and rising repayment costs.
The warning is expected to be delivered to the Oireachtas Committee of Public Accounts today by NTMA chief executive Frank O’Connor, who will describe the projected debt level as “very high-level indebtedness” carrying clear financial risks.
O’Connor will tell lawmakers that when the agency was established 35 years ago, it managed roughly €30 billion in national debt, a figure that was then considered significant. He is expected to stress that while Ireland’s debt management has evolved, the scale of borrowing today requires greater caution.
The NTMA, which oversees Ireland’s public debt and state financial assets, is responsible for ensuring that borrowing remains sustainable over the long term. O’Connor will say that the ability to service debt is now the key challenge facing the State.
He is expected to highlight that historically low interest rates, driven by quantitative easing policies across Europe, made debt servicing significantly cheaper in recent years. In 2024, Ireland’s debt servicing costs stood at €3.2 billion, down from a peak of €8 billion in 2013.
According to his remarks, the NTMA used the period of low interest rates to lock in long-term borrowing at favourable fixed rates, helping to reduce short-term fiscal pressure.
However, he will warn that this period has now ended. As older low-cost debt matures, it will be replaced with higher-cost borrowing, increasing pressure on public finances. He will also caution that further interest rate increases could add additional strain.
The committee is expected to hear that rising borrowing costs, combined with higher debt levels, could leave Ireland more exposed to global financial shocks.
Alongside the debt outlook, O’Connor will also address a separate financial security incident involving the NTMA. The agency has confirmed that €2.5 million of the €5 million stolen in a voice phishing attack last summer has not yet been recovered.
The fraud targeted the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund, which finances projects aimed at supporting economic growth and employment. The attackers used voice impersonation and a falsified invoice to mimic a legitimate payment request from an investee company.
The NTMA has confirmed that no internal IT systems were compromised during the incident. An independent forensic investigation conducted by Deloitte has been completed, and findings have been shared with the Comptroller and Auditor General.
Following the attack, the agency introduced strengthened internal controls and says all recommendations from the investigation have been implemented to reduce the risk of similar financial crime.
O’Connor will also tell the committee that efforts to recover the remaining stolen funds are ongoing, while emphasising that safeguarding public money remains a priority for the agency.
