Germany’s Business Confidence Hits Lowest Point Since 2020 Amid Economic Stagnation Concerns

Published

2 weeks ago

December 17, 2024

RTX

Germany’s business confidence has plummeted to its weakest level in over four years, reflecting growing pessimism about 2025 as the country grapples with structural challenges and sluggish investment.

The ifo Business Climate Index, a key measure of economic sentiment, dropped to 84.7 points in December 2024, down from a revised 85.6 points in November. This reading marks the lowest level since May 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted the economy. Analysts had anticipated a steadier figure of 85.6 points.

Sectoral Outlook: Widespread Gloom

The decline was driven largely by more pessimistic future expectations across major sectors, including manufacturing, services, and retail trade. Despite a slight improvement in the construction sector’s current assessment, its outlook remains grim.

“The weakness of the German economy has become chronic,” said Clemens Fuest, President of the ifo Institute.

While the subindex for current business conditions rose slightly from 84.3 to 85.1 points, surpassing expectations, the expectations subindex—a gauge of sentiment for the months ahead—fell sharply to 84.4 points, its lowest level since February 2024.

Persistent Economic Challenges

Manufacturing, a cornerstone of Germany’s export-driven economy, is feeling the strain of declining global competitiveness, particularly outside Europe. Around 31.8% of manufacturers foresee further deterioration in 2025, with only 15.7% expressing optimism. The construction sector reflects similar concerns, with over half of firms expecting worsening conditions.

Retail and service industries are also bracing for tough times. Among retailers, 42.1% anticipate a decline, while just 7.9% expect improvement. The service sector offers a slightly brighter picture, but most businesses predict little to no change.

Lara Zarges, an ifo economic expert, highlighted “structural location problems and high uncertainty regarding economic policy” as key factors causing companies to delay investments.

Economic Outlook and Risks

Germany’s economic outlook remains fraught. Last week, the ifo Institute downgraded its growth forecasts, predicting a 0.1% contraction in 2024, following a 0.3% decline this year. Modest growth of 0.4% is expected in 2025, with gradual improvement to 0.8% by 2026.

However, risks of “creeping deindustrialisation” loom large. The ifo Institute warned that the share of manufacturing in Germany’s GDP could shrink as companies relocate production overseas. Weak productivity growth further exacerbates concerns, with industrial output giving way to less productive service sectors.

Market Reactions

The worsening economic sentiment weighed on financial markets. The euro fell 0.3% on Tuesday, trading below $1.05, while yields on 10-year German Bunds dropped to 2.22% as investors sought safe-haven assets.

Germany’s benchmark DAX index remained largely flat after a 0.4% decline the previous day. Notable performers included Airbus SE and Siemens AG, while Deutsche Post AG and Rheinmetall AG saw significant declines.

As Europe’s largest economy struggles to navigate persistent challenges, the road to recovery appears long and uncertain.

Business

Spain’s Retail Sales Slow in November Despite Strong Third-Quarter Consumer Spending

Published

2 days ago

December 27, 2024

RTX

Spain’s year-on-year retail sales recorded a modest increase of 1% in November, according to data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), marking the slowest growth since June. The figure is a decline from October’s 3.4% rise and fell short of analysts’ expectations of a 2.8% increase.

Dampened November Sales

The slowdown in November was attributed to falling spending on both food and non-food items. Food spending growth decelerated to 1.5%, down from 2.2% in October, while spending on non-food products dropped sharply to 1.2%, compared to October’s 5.9% increase.

Month-on-month retail sales also declined, falling 0.6% in November after stagnating in October. Despite this dip, retail trade for the first 11 months of the year posted a 1.5% increase compared to the same period in 2023.

Robust Third-Quarter Performance

In contrast to the subdued November figures, Spain’s consumer goods spending showed strong performance in the third quarter of 2024. According to NIQ’s quarterly Retail Spending Barometer, spending on consumer goods rose 4.5% compared to Q3 2023. Durable and technological goods also saw a 4.2% uptick over the same period.

Antonio de Santos, retail vertical director at NIQ Spain, attributed the growth to price moderation in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market. “Nearly all sections of packaged and fresh products have shown positive growth in volume this year,” he stated on the company’s website. De Santos also highlighted rising household incomes, reduced mortgage expenses, and a strong employment market as key drivers of consumer spending.

Fernando Gómez, retail head of GfK Spain, noted unexpected growth in the technology and durables market during Q3, defying analysts’ predictions of a slowdown. He pointed to strong consumer interest in equipment, health, leisure, and cultural products, adding, “This indicates a promising outlook for a robust fourth quarter, barring unforeseen disruptions like the recent flooding disasters in southern Spain.”

Challenges for Retailers

While falling prices have benefited consumers, they have sparked concerns among retailers facing increased competition from Asian brands. These emerging competitors are gaining a foothold in Spain and the EU with broader product ranges at lower prices.

The rise of online shopping continues to challenge brick-and-mortar retailers, especially during the holiday season. This shift has forced traditional stores to adapt to changing consumer habits or risk losing market share.

Despite November’s softer retail sales, the overall market remains buoyed by a strong third quarter, offering a cautiously optimistic outlook for the months ahead.

Business

Eni Unveils €100 Million Supercomputer to Boost Energy Discovery and Decarbonisation Efforts

Published

3 days ago

December 26, 2024

RTX

Italian energy company Eni has unveiled one of the world’s most powerful supercomputers, the HPC6, marking a major leap in its oil and gas discovery capabilities and its commitment to decarbonisation and clean energy solutions.

With an estimated cost exceeding €100 million, the HPC6 is equipped with nearly 14,000 graphics processing units (GPUs). This cutting-edge system will handle complex artificial intelligence (AI) functions and perform highly sophisticated calculations, enabling Eni to process vast amounts of data with unprecedented speed and accuracy.

Revolutionising Energy Discovery

The HPC6 is expected to transform how Eni identifies and evaluates oil and gas reserves. By analysing data from drilling operations, seismic surveys, and reservoir simulations, the supercomputer can pinpoint oil and gas reservoirs with greater precision, assess deposit sizes, and recommend optimal drilling strategies.

Beyond discovery, the HPC6 will support critical functions such as well positioning, production forecasting, enhanced oil recovery, and advanced reservoir simulations. These capabilities promise to significantly improve the efficiency and sustainability of Eni’s exploration and production processes.

Accelerating Clean Energy and Decarbonisation

The supercomputer also plays a crucial role in Eni’s transition toward cleaner energy and decarbonisation. By harnessing its computational power, the company has already advanced fluid dynamics and geological studies for carbon storage, optimised industrial plant operations, and developed improved batteries.

Additionally, Eni has leveraged supercomputing to enhance its biofuel supply chain, making it more efficient and environmentally sustainable. The HPC6 will further aid in refining these initiatives, cementing Eni’s position at the forefront of technological innovation in the energy sector.

A Strategic Step Forward

Eni’s investment in the HPC6 underscores its strategic focus on integrating advanced technologies into its operations. As the energy sector faces increasing pressure to balance resource demands with environmental responsibility, such innovations are critical to maintaining competitiveness and achieving long-term sustainability goals.

The deployment of the HPC6 is also expected to bolster Eni’s ability to adapt to the evolving energy landscape. From accelerating the discovery of traditional energy sources to advancing clean energy projects, the supercomputer represents a pivotal tool in navigating the challenges of a rapidly changing industry.

Eni’s CEO described the HPC6 as “a game-changer for the energy sector,” highlighting its potential to drive both economic and environmental progress. With this launch, Eni reinforces its commitment to leveraging technology to address global energy challenges while advancing its decarbonisation objectives.

Business

European Stock Market Shines in 2024, Driven by Green Energy, Defence, and Technology

Published

3 days ago

December 26, 2024

RTX

The European stock market showcased remarkable stories of growth and resilience in 2024, as companies across sectors like green energy, defence, and technology capitalised on emerging opportunities. The year’s top-performing large-cap companies delivered stellar results, reflecting innovation and adaptability in the face of global challenges.

Top Performers of 2024

10. SAP SE
German software giant SAP SE saw a 71.56% year-to-date gain, propelled by robust growth in its cloud services. The company’s integration of generative AI and strategic acquisitions of AI startups cemented its leadership in enterprise software.

9. Leonardo S.p.A.
Italian defence firm Leonardo S.p.A. posted a 72.41% return, driven by heightened European defence spending. Record helicopter orders and growth in its cybersecurity division further boosted performance.

8. argenx SE
Belgian biotech argenx SE delivered a 76.01% return, thanks to the continued success of its autoimmune treatment, Vyvgart, alongside strong sales in major global markets and positive clinical trial outcomes for pipeline drugs.

7. NatWest Group
UK-based NatWest Group gained 82.22% as rising interest rates improved net interest margins. Cost-cutting measures and growth in mortgage lending also contributed to its strong performance.

6. Rolls-Royce Holdings
The aerospace giant achieved a 92.06% gain, benefitting from a resurgence in international travel and increased demand for wide-body aircraft engines. Operational streamlining and the reinstatement of dividends further bolstered investor confidence.

5. International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG)
IAG, parent company of British Airways and Iberia, saw its stock rise by 94.52%, driven by surging passenger travel and improved profit margins through the adoption of fuel-efficient aircraft.

4. Rheinmetall AG
German defence contractor Rheinmetall AG posted a 115.89% gain, capitalising on increased NATO contracts and expanded ammunition production amid geopolitical conflicts.

3. UCB SA
Belgian biopharmaceutical firm UCB SA soared 140.05%, driven by FDA approval of a new neurological treatment and strong sales of immunology therapies. Promising late-stage trial results also buoyed investor sentiment.

2. Kongsberg Gruppen ASA
Norwegian defence and maritime leader Kongsberg Gruppen ASA delivered a 177.40% return, bolstered by record demand for missile systems and innovations in autonomous maritime technology.

1. Siemens Energy AG
Siemens Energy AG emerged as the year’s top performer with an extraordinary 326% gain. The company overcame wind turbine quality issues and secured record contracts in renewable energy and hydrogen projects, stabilising its financial position with government-backed guarantees.

Looking Ahead to 2025

While some top performers like Rolls-Royce and Leonardo have maintained momentum from 2023, the upcoming year brings new uncertainties. Challenges such as potential US trade tariffs under Donald Trump’s presidency, European Central Bank policy shifts, and prolonged geopolitical conflicts could reshape market dynamics.

Emerging opportunities in green energy, artificial intelligence, and defence technology are expected to define the next wave of winners. For investors, diversification and adaptability remain key strategies for navigating an evolving economic landscape.