Riga/Vilnius/Tallinn: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have begun the final phase of their historic transition away from Russia’s electricity grid, marking a major step in their energy independence from Moscow. The two-day process, which started on Saturday, will see the Baltic nations integrate into the European Union’s power network via Poland by Sunday.
The move severs the last remaining link between the three countries and the Brell power grid—an energy system controlled by Russia and shared with Belarus. While the Baltic states have not purchased electricity from Moscow since 2022, their dependence on the Brell network left them vulnerable to geopolitical pressure.
Historic Transition Underway
As the shift began, authorities in all three countries advised residents to prepare for possible power disruptions by charging their devices, stocking up on food and water, and avoiding elevators. In some areas, traffic lights were temporarily switched off as a precaution.
A countdown clock has been set up in Lithuania’s capital, Vilnius, where a landmark ceremony on Sunday will mark the moment of transition. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is expected to attend the event, underscoring the EU’s support for the Baltic nations’ energy independence.
“We are now removing Russia’s ability to use the electricity system as a tool of geopolitical blackmail,” Lithuanian Energy Minister Žygimantas Vaičiūnas told reporters.
Professor David Smith of the Baltic Research Unit at the University of Glasgow called the transition the culmination of a decades-long effort to break free from Russian energy control.
“When the Baltic states joined the EU and NATO, they were still seen as an ‘energy island’ reliant on the Russian-Belarusian grid,” he said. “That dependence is now completely broken.”
Security Concerns and Cyber Threats
The move comes at a time of heightened tensions between the Baltic states and Russia, particularly following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Concerns over potential Russian retaliation have been amplified by a series of sabotage incidents in the Baltic Sea over the past 18 months, including damage to at least 11 underwater power and communication cables. In October 2023, an oil tanker from Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” was accused of severing Estonia’s main power link in the Gulf of Finland. The Kremlin declined to comment on the incident.
While NATO has not directly blamed Russia for the recent infrastructure attacks, the alliance has responded by launching “Baltic Sentry,” a new regional patrol mission aimed at deterring further threats.
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs acknowledged the risks involved in the transition but reassured the public that security measures were in place.
“We cannot rule out some kind of provocation. That is why Latvian and foreign security authorities are on high alert,” he said.
Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa echoed these concerns, adding, “The risks are identified, and there is a contingency plan.”
Cyber and Disinformation Threats
In addition to physical threats, experts warn of potential cyber-attacks targeting the region’s energy infrastructure. Estonia’s Cybersecurity Centre chief, Gert Auvaart, stated that Russia “may attempt to exploit this period to create uncertainty” but expressed confidence in the Baltic states’ preparedness.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Estonia has seen a surge in cyber threats, ranging from hacktivist-driven DDoS (Distributed Denial-of-Service) attacks to sophisticated infiltration attempts targeting government agencies and businesses.
Disinformation campaigns have also emerged, with social media posts falsely warning of power shortages and skyrocketing energy prices following the Baltic states’ withdrawal from Brell. These narratives, experts say, are designed to undermine public confidence in the transition.
Despite the risks, officials in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania remain firm in their decision, viewing it as a critical milestone in their journey toward full integration with the European energy market.
With this transition, the Baltic nations not only strengthen their energy security but also deliver a symbolic blow to Russia’s influence in the region—a step more than 30 years in the making.
