European patients could face longer waits for some new medicines as US efforts to reduce drug prices may encourage pharmaceutical companies to delay launches in lower-price European markets, according to a modelling study published in The Lancet.
The study examined 195 patented medicines that account for about $87.9 billion in annual US spending. Researchers found that for three-quarters of the medicines analysed, the revenue companies could lose from lowering US prices would exceed their combined annual sales in the countries whose prices could be used as references.
The findings raise concerns about the potential impact of President Donald Trump’s most-favoured-nation pricing policy, which seeks to align US drug prices with lower prices paid in other developed countries.
Researchers said pharmaceutical companies could respond by postponing the launch of new medicines in countries with lower prices. Delaying a European launch could prevent those prices from being used as a benchmark for US negotiations.
“Policies in the US may impact access to medicines globally,” said study author Kerstin Vokinger of ETH Zurich and the University of Zurich.
The European Patients Forum warned that patients with serious or progressive illnesses could be particularly affected if companies delay introducing treatments.
Europe has already experienced a decline in new medicine launches. Reuters reported in March that drug launches in EU markets had fallen by about 35 per cent during the 10 months following Trump’s executive order compared with the previous 10 months. Researchers have not established that the US pricing policy directly caused the decline.
Alexander Natz, chief executive of biotech entrepreneurs’ lobby Eucope, said companies were increasingly reconsidering whether and when to launch products in European countries, including Germany.
He said governments may need to consider whether they are prepared to spend more on healthcare to ensure patients have timely access to innovative treatments.
Thomas Hwang of Brigham and Women’s Hospital, the study’s lead author, said countries used as references for US prices, including Germany, Japan and Australia, were already under pressure to increase medicine spending despite limited healthcare budgets.
